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Hi DIMITRIS,
Thursday, October 23, 2003, 7:06:47 PM, you wrote:
DT> Yuki, you had a -4.2% on 22/9/2003 in TokyoSE. Was that day
DT> similar to the last one [if you still remember that ^N225
DT> session?] Were last day sellers more aggressive ? Any [personal]
DT> estimation for the next two ^N225 bars ?
Much more aggressive today. On 9/22, advance decline on the first
section was 526 up, 913 down. Today it was a staggering 23 up, 1496
down. Also, we had only 5 new highs and 31 new lows today. You've
really got to go back to April to see that kind of negative
imbalance.
The next two days? Sure. ^_^ A lot will depend on the US, which
will influence the dollar, which will have a big influence here.
Bargain hunters will have to come in of course; it's just a question
of when and where. We'll probably at least touch the 9/29 low in the
next two bars, which is 10,150 give or take a few points. Before we
test 10,000, I'd look for a mild rally -- it's only 350-400 points
back up to the 50-day from the 9/29 low. That would be about where
the 18 day and 50 day will cross however, putting the 18 day lower
for the first time since mid May. It's overdue, and I would suspect
a rally will fail around there, typically just after looking like it
will punch through to the upside. We should be range bound between
10,000 and 10,500 a while, give me a couple hundred on each side. I
think the explosiveness has been defused for the time being, and the
market will have to consolidate and think about next spring's economy
a bit. The easy money has long been made here this year. Next two
bars, and next 6-8 weeks at least, not much headway, but a good
traders market.
Yuki
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