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Re: [amibroker] Steve K.: realtraders group?



PureBytes Links

Trading Reference Links

Jitu:

Try these 3 sites:

http://www.traderclub.com (chuck lebeau's forum)
http://www.mastermindforum.com/phorum/ (van tharp's forum)
http://turtletradingsoftware.com/forum (curtis faith's forum)

All are excellent. 

Al Venosa

Original Message:
-----------------
From: CedarCreekTrading kernish@xxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Mon, 20 Oct 2003 09:45:46 -0600
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Steve K.: realtraders group?


Jitu,

Actually, the forum is relatively inactive.  It used to hum with fifty
posts a day.  Nowadays, it produces a half a dozen (on an active day). 
There's some real meat in the archives:

http://www.purebytes.com/archives/realtraders/

Take care,

Steve
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: jtelang 
  To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  Sent: Monday, October 20, 2003 9:24 AM
  Subject: [amibroker] Steve K.: realtraders group?


  Steve,

  Is that forum still supposed to be active? I see something called 
  realtraders-2 on yahoo groups, but it's empty.

  BTW, if anyone has recommendations for good trading/system-
  development related groups to monitor, I'd love to know about 'em.

  Thanks.

  Jitu

  --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading" <kernish@xxxx> 
  wrote:
  > Jitu,
  > 
  > About four years ago, the realtraders yahoo forum had a great 
  thread on Larry Williams.  Realtraders is still around and worth 
  monitoring.  I don't know how they archive their messages, but it 
  might be worth trying to find it.  Lot's of traders had their 
  own "Larry" stories.  The thread was quite humurous.   Larry Williams 
  sells seminars, books, systems, and tutoring?  People like John 
  Henry, Paul Tudor Jones, Richard Dennis, and many others, have traded 
  billions.  Does anyone believe that Williams is a better trader than 
  any of these CTA's?  I hope not.  I'm sure Larry has helped someone, 
  somewhere, ... at least I hope so.  Calling Larry Williams one of the 
  most knowlegeable trader of modern times is like saying Pamela 
  Anderson is the greatest actress of the last fifty years.
  > 
  > Take care,
  > 
  > Steve
  >   ----- Original Message ----- 
  >   From: jtelang 
  >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
  >   Sent: Sunday, October 19, 2003 8:13 PM
  >   Subject: Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re: 
  Optimization -- again)
  > 
  > 
  >   Hi Pal,
  > 
  >   Couple of questions re. Larry if you don't mind...
  > 
  >   1. Have you ever been taught by him, via books or seminars?
  >   2. If yes, have you made significant profits from the things he 
  >   taught?
  > 
  >   I've certainly read/heard about him, but at the same time, have 
  never 
  >   heard affirmative answers to both of these questions on other 
  >   discussion forums on the net. Its entirely possible that people 
  >   who've actually made money are not bothering to spell it out, but 
  I'm 
  >   curious to know what the source of your belief in him as one of 
  the 
  >   greatest  traders is (other than his trading competition results 
  and 
  >   the million dollar challenge, etc.)
  > 
  >   BTW, I have no bias about him either way. I've never interacted 
  with 
  >   him nor been significantly influenced by his teachings so far, 
  and so 
  >   have no opinion either way.
  > 
  >   Jitu
  > 
  >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> 
  wrote:
  >   > Hi,
  >   > 
  >   > Many recent contributions suggest using discipline, commitment, 
  >   > trading skills, etc., rather than 100% mechanical systems. I 
  think 
  >   > this will cause more losers than winners. 
  >   > 
  >   > The reason computer trading systems exist is to capture good 
  ideas 
  >   > and determine the best way to apply them. Basically, any idea 
  one 
  >   > uses can be automated and tested. Various filters and stops can 
  >   often 
  >   > improve a system's 10-yr performance even after it's released. 
  >   > Otherwise, one may lose their skill or luck in selecting trades.
  >   > 
  >   > In Jack Schwager books (The Market Wizards and the The New 
  Market 
  >   > Wizards), the author writes about Ed Seykota, who multiplied 
  his 
  >   > clients accounts by 2500 times (250,000%) in about 10 years.  
  Then 
  >   > there's Michael Marcus, who parlayed a $30,000 initial stake 
  into 
  >   $80 
  >   > Million.  Another famous trader not included in Jack Schwager's 
  >   books 
  >   > is Larry Williams, who won a national trading competition in 
  1987 
  >   by 
  >   > multiplying $10,000 into over $1,000,000 in 1 year.  Each of 
  these 
  >   > traders says they use mechanical systems, some almost 
  exclusively.
  >   > 
  >   > Most traders are very reluctant to reveal real-time trading 
  income 
  >   > particulars including myself for obvious reasons...
  >   > 
  >   > Regards,
  >   > 
  >   > Pal
  >   > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
  >   > > LOL ... Okay, if you say so ... Let me know when any of you 
  guys 
  >   > who 
  >   > > believe this START trading mechanical systems with REAL 
  money, 
  >   I'll 
  >   > > be very interested in your real time results.
  >   > > 
  >   > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Jayson" <jcasavant@xxxx> 
  wrote:
  >   > > > Fred,
  >   > > > I think market behavior does change because the market 
  itself 
  >   has 
  >   > > changed.
  >   > > > 10 years ago your broker told you "Buy GE, put it under the 
  >   > > mattress, you
  >   > > > will make money". If you took his advice and bought it on 
  >   Monday 
  >   > > only to
  >   > > > watch it fall all week then called him up he would tell 
  you "We 
  >   > are 
  >   > > in this
  >   > > > for the long haul, relax" ...... and you probably did, 
  >   especially 
  >   > > since your
  >   > > > trade probably cost you over $100 round trip. 10 years ago 
  a 
  >   one 
  >   > > year or 6
  >   > > > month hold was considered "Short Term" today that is no 
  longer 
  >   > the 
  >   > > case.
  >   > > > With online brokerage accounts you can now buy and sell 
  that 
  >   same 
  >   > > chunk of
  >   > > > stock for $10 per side. Your broker isn't selling the stock 
  de 
  >   > > jour, instead
  >   > > > you are picking it your self. You have access to hundreds 
  of 
  >   > > websites,
  >   > > > dozens of data providers and have computer power on your 
  desk 
  >   > that 
  >   > > could
  >   > > > have launched a rocket a half a generation ago. And more 
  >   > > importantly so do
  >   > > > millions of other "Small investors". Day traders didn't 
  even 
  >   > exist. 
  >   > > This
  >   > > > isn't your fathers market,  IMO to back test data from 10 
  or 20 
  >   > > years ago
  >   > > > and think that optimizing on that data to trade today holds 
  >   > little 
  >   > > value.
  >   > > > The markets turn on a dime and there is a whole new breed 
  of 
  >   more 
  >   > > nimble
  >   > > > traders taking part in the action. The dynamics and 
  psychology 
  >   of 
  >   > > the market
  >   > > > is completely different. It is no longer ruled by the few. 
  >   Watch 
  >   > the
  >   > > > buy/sells go through and you see trade after trade of 100-
  200 
  >   or 
  >   > > 500 shares.
  >   > > > This is not Dean Whiter placing trades but Joe and Jill six 
  >   pack. 
  >   > 5 
  >   > > years
  >   > > > ago I used to always wait until the first have hour of 
  trading 
  >   > had 
  >   > > passed
  >   > > > before placing a trade to avoid the built up demand already 
  in 
  >   > the 
  >   > > pipe. Now
  >   > > > if I wait more than 10 minutes the train is out of the 
  station. 
  >   > > Perhaps it
  >   > > > is just a forest/trees scenario but I think there are 
  >   fundamental
  >   > > > differences in the way the markets react today versus the 
  >   recent 
  >   > > past......
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > Regards,
  >   > > > Jayson
  >   > > > -----Original Message-----
  >   > > > From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
  >   > > > Sent: Sunday, October 19, 2003 5:38 PM
  >   > > > To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
  >   > > > Subject: Objective functions (was RE: [amibroker] Re: 
  >   > Optimization -
  >   > > - again)
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > There are a lot of questions and provacative statements in 
  your 
  >   > > post,
  >   > > > only one of which from my perspective needs an 
  answer/response.
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > Market behavior will continually change after that ...
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > Change ? from what ? into what ? I guess this is the part I 
  >   don't
  >   > > > follow.  To me there is nothing new in market behavior now 
  that
  >   > > > didn't exist last month, last year, last decade, last 
  century, 
  >   but
  >   > > > clearly those that take a short sighted view of history and 
  the
  >   > > > market action that made up that history will clearly never 
  see 
  >   it.
  >   > > > It's a forest and trees thing ...
  >   > > > 
  >   > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dave Merrill" 
  <dmerrill@xxxx>
  >   > > > wrote:
  >   > > > > I'm not trying to be argumentative, honest (:-)... I'm 
  more 
  >   > than a
  >   > > > little
  >   > > > > sick of saying the same thing over and over, but I  j u s 
  t   
  >   d 
  >   > o
  >   > > > n ' t   g
  >   > > > > e t   i t .
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > ------------------------------
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > I fail to see the huge difference in principle between 
  equity
  >   > > > feedback and
  >   > > > > backtesting.
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > let's start by assuming that backtesting performance of a 
  >   system
  >   > > > and its
  >   > > > > parameters over some period of past data tells you 
  something 
  >   > about
  >   > > > its
  >   > > > > future performance. it's not a perfect predictor, but 
  it's 
  >   the 
  >   > > best
  >   > > > evidence
  >   > > > > we have. does this seem like a reasonable starting point? 
  what
  >   > > > alternative
  >   > > > > is there?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > if that's true, why is it better to do it only once? what
  >   > > > justification is
  >   > > > > there for picking one examination period over another? 
  clearly
  >   > > > market
  >   > > > > behavior will change continually after that. don't we 
  need a 
  >   > way 
  >   > > of
  >   > > > working
  >   > > > > that looks at what's been happening and evolves our 
  response?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > sounds like we examine performance up to some point and 
  >   adjust,
  >   > > > trade with
  >   > > > > the best-choice system and parameters for a while, then 
  >   examine 
  >   > > and
  >   > > > adjust
  >   > > > > again later. make sense? what alternative is there?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > so then, how often do we re-examine performance history? 
  to 
  >   put 
  >   > it
  >   > > > > differently, how long do we ignore any changes in market 
  >   > dynamics
  >   > > > that may
  >   > > > > or may not have occurred? why would intermittently 
  refusing 
  >   to 
  >   > > look
  >   > > > and
  >   > > > > respond improve system performance or reliability?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > if that needs to be done, why not have the system itself 
  do 
  >   it, 
  >   > as
  >   > > > part of
  >   > > > > its inherent operation? why is it better for us as an 
  outside 
  >   > > agent
  >   > > > to
  >   > > > > periodically run some separate tests, reach into the 
  >   internals 
  >   > of
  >   > > > the
  >   > > > > system, and change stuff?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > or should we just continue with the system and parameters 
  we 
  >   > > choose
  >   > > > at the
  >   > > > > beginning? are they somehow more valid than what we'd 
  choose 
  >   > > later,
  >   > > > using
  >   > > > > the same backtesting methods, but on a different date 
  range 
  >   of 
  >   > > data?
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > ------------------------------
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > I realize that even if it seems to make sense logically, 
  this 
  >   > all 
  >   > > a
  >   > > > complete
  >   > > > > crock if no systems put together like this even backtest 
  well,
  >   > > > never mind
  >   > > > > forward testing.
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > but every time I think about abandoning this line of 
  >   research, 
  >   > it
  >   > > > seems like
  >   > > > > the first thing I'd want to do with a new system would be 
  >   (let 
  >   > me
  >   > > > guess),
  >   > > > > test and possibly adjust it using data up to some date, 
  then 
  >   run
  >   > > > with it for
  >   > > > > a while after that and see if equity growth is good. if 
  it 
  >   is, 
  >   > I'd
  >   > > > want to
  >   > > > > lather, rinse and repeat with other in and out of sample 
  >   data, 
  >   > to
  >   > > > make sure
  >   > > > > that wasn't coincidence.
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > sounds way too familiar to be a completely different 
  animal.
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > > dave
  >   > > > >   From: Fred [mailto:fctonetti@x...]
  >   > > > >
  >   > > > >   That IS what I was trying to say.  I suspect because 
  equity 
  >   > feed
  >   > > > back
  >   > > > >   is like looking in a rear view mirror, great for 
  letting us 
  >   > know
  >   > > > >   where we were and how we could have adjusted the past 
  to 
  >   make 
  >   > it
  >   > > > >   better, but that's about it.
  >   > > > 
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