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[amibroker] Re: More Random thoughts.....



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LOL ... uhhh okay ...

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> wrote:
> I tried to post the results but the file came out truncated...   
With 
> FOREX you can certainly get 100:1 levarage...  You have to use 
> techniques like pyramiding to counter drawdowns...
> 
> Regards,
> 
> Pal
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > I'm quite familiar with the math, the metrics and the terms 
thanks.
> > 
> > Assuming for a minute that you can get 100:1 leverage with 
> futures,  
> > which for most contracts you can't, but for the moment assuming 
you 
> > can, let's see then, a 1% DD and you're toast, a 2% DD and you're 
> > house is toast as well.
> > 
> > I wish you the best of luck in your adventures.
> > 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" <palsanand@xxxx> 
> wrote:
> > > Hi,
> > > 
> > > I don't have results for 5 or 6 years.  I can produce results 
for 
> > > only 1 month when the simulated account expires and I need to 
> open 
> > a 
> > > new simulated account every month.
> > > 
> > > These results occur because of holding massive margined 
positions 
> > > under leverages of 100:1 (FOREX and Futures) and solid money-
> > > management techniques.... certainly not for the faint-
hearted...  
> > > Fortune favors the brave...
> > > 
> > > By keeping one's funds 100% invested at all times, it is very 
> > > possible to achieve returns of 5000% or higher.  If a $25 stock 
> > moves 
> > > $1, that's a gain of about 4%.  5 stocks, that is a gain of 
20%.  
> > It 
> > > doesn't matter which direction it moves as long you are willing 
> to 
> > go 
> > > long as well as go short...
> > > 
> > > Let me interject a quick comment on leverage.  If you are 
trading 
> > on 
> > > Margin with your broker, you can trade twice your account 
> balance.  
> > > That is, if you have $100,000 in your account you can actually 
> take 
> > > $200,000 in positions in the market.  So, a 10% gain in a fully 
> > > margined account is like 20% in a non-margined account.
> > > 
> > > The trick is to stay invested at all times and make CONSISTENT 
> > > gains.  We need to clear only 10% if we are trading on margin.  
> > Every 
> > > day a host of stocks make moves of 5%, 10% or more.  1 and 2% 
> > movers 
> > > are everywhere...
> > > 
> > > I would be happy to post the results at the end of this 
month....
> > > 
> > > Regards,
> > > 
> > > Pal
> > > 
> > > 
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > I'd like to see the equity curve and statistics for the past 
5 
> or 
> > 6 
> > > > years from an automated system where you're getting 20% per 
> day.  
> > > If 
> > > > you could generate those kind of returns people would be 
coming 
> > out 
> > > > of the woodwork to bankroll your trading.  After all 
beginning 
> > with 
> > > a 
> > > > balance of $100k you'd have close to $10b after 3 months.  
Then 
> > of 
> > > > course you'd need to ante up some fairly fat estimated tax 
> > payment 
> > > > for uncle.
> > > > 
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" 
<palsanand@xxxx> 
> > > wrote:
> > > > > Hi,
> > > > > 
> > > > > To make a trading system profitable, we need a good money 
> > > mangement 
> > > > > system in-addition to a good signal detection, verification 
> and 
> > > > > interpretation system.
> > > > > 
> > > > > I find it very difficult to automate good money management 
> > > > > strategies.  Sometimes, you have to enter the market at MOO 
> > > > (previous 
> > > > > session's close price), sometimes at High Of Day/Low Of Day 
> > > etc.,  
> > > > > Sometimes you have to Pyramid/Pillar your losing positions 
> and 
> > > then 
> > > > > close out your losing positions at break even price.  
> Sometimes 
> > > you 
> > > > > have to have wide stops, sometimes narrow stops, sometimes 
no 
> > > stops 
> > > > > (combine options with the straight underlying instrument).  
> > > > Sometimes 
> > > > > the data is not accurate and so your back-testing results 
are 
> > > > bogus.  
> > > > > It is just too complex to automate all of them.  The best I 
> can 
> > > do 
> > > > is 
> > > > > to record my trades and co-relate with my trading report 
from 
> > my 
> > > > > account.  
> > > > > 
> > > > > I do not believe the back-testing report created by the 
> > > software.  
> > > > I 
> > > > > don't think it is prudent to base your trading just on 
these 
> > back-
> > > > > testing results.  You have to test it in the real-world for 
> > about 
> > > 1 
> > > > > year with real-world money-management strategies or atleast 
a 
> > > > > simulation account.  It is a very slow process...  one 
needs 
> a 
> > > hell 
> > > > > of a lot of patience, especially when you see your 
simulation 
> > > > account 
> > > > > grossing returns of over 20% a day...
> > > > > 
> > > > > Maybe the new portfolio tester...
> > > > > 
> > > > > Regards,
> > > > > 
> > > > > Pal
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > 
> > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "jtelang" <jtelang@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > > > > > After all, the bottom line is to make money! And not to 
> > > second 
> > > > > > guess 
> > > > > > > what you think might occur next. The market is always 
> right!
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Amen!
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > I have a random question. Speaking of making money, 
> how/what 
> > > kind 
> > > > > of 
> > > > > > profitable systems have people in this group developed 
> using 
> > > AB? 
> > > > Do 
> > > > > > we have any heavy hitters who've written systems showing 
> > > > > _consistent_ 
> > > > > > 100+% return systems using AB? Anyone interested in 
results 
> > of 
> > > > such 
> > > > > a 
> > > > > > quick survey?
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > I myself am currently testing a system which shows 
> following, 
> > > > which 
> > > > > > I'm in the process of confirming as I keep finding bugs 
in 
> > it :-
> > > > ) -
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Trading type: Stocks (only long plays)
> > > > > > Period: Short term, 2-5 days in a trade.
> > > > > > Avg annual return over last 5 years of data: Around 30%
> > > > > > Max system % drawdown: 20%
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > I know its certainly not a high flying system by any 
means, 
> > but 
> > > > at 
> > > > > > the same time I also read everywhere that most traders 
end 
> up 
> > > > > losing 
> > > > > > money, so at least by that standard it sounds like a good 
> one 
> > > to 
> > > > > > start with. :-)
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Would love to hear statistics from other experts here. 
I'm 
> > sure 
> > > > > > there're lots of them...
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > Jitu
> > > > > > 
> > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Joe" 
> > > > > <run_for_your_life2003@xxxx> 
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > Yeah, trust you signals because if they give you the 
> wrong 
> > > > signal 
> > > > > > > you can only blame yourself for your mistakes.
> > > > > > > At the moment a lot of investors thinks this market 
will 
> > tank 
> > > > in 
> > > > > > > October! I still buy according to the signals on my 
graph!
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > Will the majority be fooled this month thinking a 
> downmove 
> > in 
> > > > > > stocks 
> > > > > > > and in reality happens in November. I buy my stocks 
> > according 
> > > > to 
> > > > > my 
> > > > > > > signals! Very rarely listen to news on television or 
the 
> > > > > newspaper 
> > > > > > > and do a much better job on investing now.
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > After all, the bottom line is to make money! And not to 
> > > second 
> > > > > > guess 
> > > > > > > what you think might occur next. The market is always 
> right!
> > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" 
> > > <palsanand@xxxx> 
> > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > Hi,
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > READ NOTHING, LISTEN TO NO ONE, EXCEPT YOUR 
SIGNALS...  
> > > > SIGNALS 
> > > > > > > TALK 
> > > > > > > > TO YOU, SOMETIMES THEY SCREAM...
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > LEARN TO BUY ON BEARISH NEWS AND SELL ON BULLISH NEWS
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > Pal
> > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "palsanand" 
> > > > <palsanand@xxxx> 
> > > > > > > wrote:
> > > > > > > > > Hi,
> > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND BUT NOT WHEN IT IS GOING 
TO 
> > > END....
> > > > > > > > > CUT YOUR LOSSES SHORT & LET YOUR PROFITS RUN....
> > > > > > > > > THERE IS A TIME TO GO SHORT, A TIME TO GO LONG, AND 
A 
> > > TIME 
> > > > TO 
> > > > > > GO 
> > > > > > > > > FISHING....
> > > > > > > > > BUY LOW, SELL HIGH....
> > > > > > > > > BUY EAGERLY, SELL RELUCTANTLY....
> > > > > > > > > YOU CAN'T CHERRY PICK SIGNALS, YOU HAVE TO TRADE 
> EVERY 
> > > DAMN 
> > > > > ONE 
> > > > > > > OF 
> > > > > > > > > THEM....
> > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > Regards,
> > > > > > > > > 
> > > > > > > > > Pal


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