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[amibroker] Re: Two Days after the Bullish Inflection [corrected]



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Hi Dimitris,

I'm impressed by your programming skills and the way you think about 
it. Can I use this program also for the Dutch AEX and how I do this?
In a few hours we fly to our children and grandchildren in Crete.
Thank you!

Sjaak


--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" 
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: Dimitris Tsokakis 
> To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
> Sent: Tuesday, September 30, 2003 1:55 PM
> Subject: Two Days after the Bullish Inflection
> 
> 
> The bullish movement begins with an ascending convex. [darkgreen 
area]
> Before the end, the bulish pressure diminishes and the smoothing 
line becomes concave.[turquoise area]
> The Inflection point gives the signal for the curvature change.
> Exit two days later for a quick profit taking.
> Since you know the exit day in advance, you may sell at Close, 
delay=0.
> ^NDX is the module array to apply the IIR2 smoothing and the 
concavity/convexity principle.
> 96/101 N100 stocks were profitable for this [bullish] year.
> 
> 
>       Settings 
>         
>       Initial Equity: 10000  Periodicity/Positions:  Daily/Long  
>       Commissions: 0.25 %  Annual interest rate: 0.00% 
>       Range: 1/1/2003 00:00:00 - 30/9/2003  Apply to: Filter 
>       Include Filter    Exclude Filter   
>       Market -  Market - 
>       Group Group 254  Group - 
>       Sector -  Sector - 
>       Industry -  Industry - 
>       Watch list -  Watch list - 
>       Index -  Index - 
>       Favourite -  Favourite - 
>       Margin requirement: 100  Futures mode: No 
>       Def. round lot size: 0  Def. Tick Size 0 
>       Drawdowns based on: High/Low prices      
>       Long trades 
>       Buy price: Open  Sell price:  Close 
>       Buy delay: 1  Sell delay:  0 
>       Short trades 
>       Short price: Open  Cover price:  Open 
>       Short delay: 1  Cover delay:  1 
>       Stops 
>       Maximum loss: disabled  Profit target:  disabled 
>       Value: 50.00  Value:  20.00 
>       Exit at stop? yes  Exit at stop?  yes 
>         
>       Trailing stop: disabled       
>       Value: 5.00       
>       Exit at stop? yes       
> 
>       Formula 
> 
> 
> Z1=LastValue(Cum(1)); 
> function IIR2( input, f0, f1, f2 ) 
> { 
>   result[ 0 ] = input[ 0 ];result[ 1 ] = input[ 1 ];  
>   for( i = 2; i < BarCount; i++ ) 
>   { 
>     result[ i ] = f0 * input[ i ] + f1 * result[ i - 1 ] + f2 * 
result[ i - 2 ];  
>   } 
>   return result; 
> } 
> SetForeign("^NDX"); // Replace "^NDX" with your symbol for the 
N100 Index.
> C1=C; 
> k=0.45; 
> RD=IIR2( C1, 0.3, 1.2+K, -0.5-K); 
> y=RD; 
> t=1; 
> Convex=(y-Ref(y,-t))/t>=(y-Ref(y,-(t+1)))/(t+1); 
> Concave=NOT(Convex); 
> Ascending=y>=Ref(y,-1); 
> Descending=NOT(ascending); 
> Bullstart=Convex AND Ascending; 
> Bullend=Concave AND ascending; 
> Bearstart=Concave AND Descending; 
> Bearend=Convex AND Descending; 
> Color=IIf(Bullstart,colorDarkGreen,IIf(Bullend,colorTurquoise,IIf
(Bearstart,colorDarkRed,colorPink))); 
> Buy=BULLSTART AND Ref(BEAREND,-1); 
> Sell=Ref(BULLEND AND Ref(BULLSTART,-1),-2); 
>  
> 
> Overall performance summary 
>         
>       Total net profit: 397055.54   Total commissions paid: 
86943.91 
>       Return on account: 39.31 %    Open position gain/loss 0.00 
>       Buy&Hold profit: 377566.31   Bars (avg. days) in test: 18887 
(271) 
>       Buy&Hold % return: 37.38%   System to Buy&Hold index: 5.16% 
>         
>       Annual system % return:  56.29%   Annual B&H % return: 
53.38% 
>         
>       System drawdown: -3667.89   B&H drawdown: -4183.06 
>       Max. system drawdown: -4803.97   B&H max. drawdown: -
10382.31 
>       Max. system % drawdown: -43.14%   B&H max. % drawdown: -
49.10% 
>       Max. trade drawdown: -4531.67       
>       Max. trade % drawdown: -33.83%       
>       Trade drawdown: -3544.00       
>         
>       Total number of trades: 1515   Percent profitable: 63.1% 
>       Number winning trades: 956   Number losing trades: 559 
>       Profit of winners: 668304.02   Loss of losers: -271248.49 
>       Total # of bars in winners: 5267   Total # of bars in 
losers: 2914 
>       Commissions paid in winners: 55873.75   Commissions paid in 
losers: 31070.16 
>         
>       Largest winning trade: 4316.82   Largest losing trade: -
2928.74 
>       # of bars in largest winner: 6   # bars in largest loser: 5 
>       Commission paid in largest winner: 101.96   Commission paid 
in largest loser: 43.27 
>         
>       Average winning trade: 699.06   Average losing trade: -
485.24 
>       Avg. # of bars in winners: 5.5   Avg. # bars in losers: 5.2 
>       Avg. commission paid in winner: 58.45   Avg. commission paid 
in loser: 55.58 
>       Max consec. winners: 12   Max consec. losers: 4 
>         
>       Bars out of the market: 10706   Interest earned: 0.00 
>         
>       Exposure: 43.3%   Risk adjusted ann. return: 129.96% 
>       Ratio avg win/avg loss: 1.44   Avg. trade (win & loss): 
262.08 
>       Profit factor: 2.46 
> 
> 
> For IB use the 
> Z1=LastValue(Cum(1));
> function IIR2( input, f0, f1, f2 )
> {
>   result[ 0 ] = input[ 0 ];result[ 1 ] = input[ 1 ]; 
>   for( i = 2; i < BarCount; i++ )
>   {
>     result[ i ] = f0 * input[ i ] + f1 * result[ i - 1 ] + f2 * 
result[ i - 2 ]; 
>   }
>   return result;
> }
> SetForeign("^NDX");
> C1=C;
> k=Optimize("k",0.45,0.1,0.5,0.01);
> RD=IIR2( C1, 0.3, 1.2+K, -0.5-K);
> y=RD;
> t=1;
> Convex=(y-Ref(y,-t))/t>=(y-Ref(y,-(t+1)))/(t+1);
> Concave=NOT(Convex);
> Ascending=y>=Ref(y,-1);
> Descending=NOT(ascending);
> Bullstart=Convex AND Ascending;
> Bullend=Concave AND ascending;
> Bearstart=Concave AND Descending;
> Bearend=Convex AND Descending;
> Color=IIf(Bullstart,colorDarkGreen,IIf(Bullend,colorTurquoise,IIf
(Bearstart,colorDarkRed,colorPink)));
> Plot(y,"y",Color,8);
> Plot(C,"C",1,64);
> PlotShapes((BULLEND AND Ref(BULLSTART,-1))
*shapeHollowSmallDownTriangle,colorOrange);
> Buy=BULLSTART AND Ref(BEAREND,-1);
> Sell=Ref(BULLEND AND Ref(BULLSTART,-1),-2);
> PlotShapes(shapeDownArrow*Sell,colorRed);Graphxspace=2;
> 
> to see the basic ^NDX chart, the Inflection points [small orange 
triangle] and the SellTheMarket exits.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
> 
> PS The factor k was selected near to the limit of its range [0.1 
to 0.5] mainly for visual purposes.
> The smoothing line looks now like a trendy sinusoidal and 
emphasises the periodicity of this year movement.
> Another interesting observation : All the darkgreen areas 
[bullstart] came AFTER a pink area [bearend].
> Consequently, when the bearish cycle begins [darkred bearstart] it 
is better to be patient until the pink
> days appear [the new uptrend will not begin earlier...]


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