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RE: [amibroker] Nasdaq pullback system



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-----Original Message-----
From: Alan Nouray [mailto:alann@xxxxxxxxxxxx] 
Sent: Tuesday, 23 September 2003 6:28 AM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [amibroker] Nasdaq pullback system


The following system was discussed in another Yahoo group and I want to know
if it is possible to write the AFL for this system:

The system is comprised of 4 parts: (1) the setup, which is the 
pullback, (2) the filters to identify the best time to go long, (3) 
buy rules, and (4) exit rules. Details for each part follow:

Setup: A high occurs which is higher than the last 7 trading days 
and higher than the next 2-4 trading days and is followed by a close 
that is 2% below the high occurring within 2-4 trading days.  

Filters: there are two filters to determine if the Nasdaq is in an 
uptrend. The 20 bar RSI must be greater than 50, and the 5 bar exponential
moving average (ema) of the close (cyan) must be greater than the 21 bar ema
(red).

Buy Rules: go long the Nasdaq on the close of the 6th or 7th day of 
a pullback if both filters are positive; use the 6th day close to 
buy if the 2% decline occurs on the 1st through 3rd day close 
following the high; use the 7th day close to buy if the 2% decline 
occurs on the 4th or 5th day close after the high. Take a second 
long position if another pullback setup occurs within 12 days of the 
first long position and both filters are positive.

Exit Rules: exit the long position on the close of the 12th trading 
day from the entry point or if the position reaches an 8% profit 
target, whichever comes first. Use a 7% stop loss.

The system was backtested using Nasdaq data from 1/6/1997 to 
7/1/2002. There were 71% profitable trades for a total of 2880 
points - The system was also applied to out-of-sample data from 7/1/02 to
8/29/03. There were 83% profitable trades for a total of 472 points Based on
out-of-sample testing the system appears to be robust. 

In the last two weeks, two more pullback setups occurred, which 
generated buy signals. The system is currently holding 2 long 
positions from the close of 9/02 and 9/16. The system will exit both 
positions at the close of 10/02 or at an 8% gain from the 9/16 
close, whichever comes first.

The system details are provided to this group for educational purposes ONLY,
and is not a recommendation to go long. Please feel free to shoot holes in
this system. I am here to learn, and all criticism will be viewed as
constructive.

Alan





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