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[amibroker] Profits vs exposure[was Re: Tillson and Jurik]



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I will give detailed AA formulas tomorrow morning.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Alan Nouray" <alann@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
> 
> I know TD Sequential formula but I did not know there are 2 
versions.
> Can you please clarify.
> 
> Alan
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > Steve,
> > here is some technical data
> >           %Net profit    Exposure
> > simple       +1170%       97%
> > MA21          +496%       60%
> > TDseq1        +748%       77%
> > TDseq2        +400%       74%
> > 
> > TDseq1 and TDseq2 are two TomDeMark sequential applications from 
my 
> > recent posts on the subject. They accept Buy signals when 
> > the "environment" is expecting a buy signal.
> > I do not think it is easy to choose one of these 4 techniques.
> > Any opinion ?
> > Dimitris Tsokakis 
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" 
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx> 
> > wrote:
> > > Steve,
> > > the question was going to Herman, who uses the AA tools and is 
> > aware 
> > > of the amibroker report details[exposure etc.].
> > > As for the "trend qualifier", I don't know if you would like to 
> > > discuss the subject, but we can no way speak for any kind 
of "one 
> > bar 
> > > trend" and I will suppose you agree.
> > > The two options are
> > > Buy=Cross(17,StochRsi) ;
> > > and
> > > Buy=Cross(17,StochRsi) AND Ref(MA(C,21),-1) < MA(C,21);;
> > > for the specific day you will decide to Buy or not.
> > > Of course, this specific day the MA(C,21) may be < or > of its 
> > > previous value. This may equally happen in a bullish/bearish 
trend.
> > > Any two-bar relation could never characterise a "trend".
> > > The only actual result of MA additive is to prevent some 
crosses to 
> > > become signals. This makes the system stay out of the market 
for 
> > some 
> > > periods, something like 50/90 exposure ratio.
> > > Thank you for your prompt reply.
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "CedarCreekTrading" 
> > <kernish@xxxx> 
> > > wrote:
> > > > DT,
> > > > 
> > > > Any trend qualifier can be substituted.  A couple years ago, 
when 
> > I 
> > > released this version to the public, I was using a simple 
moving 
> > > average to screen for trades.  In most robust approaches to the 
> > > markets, trading is usually enhanced by only taking trades in 
the 
> > > direction of the trend.  This accomplishes two things 
(usually):  
> > > keeps you out of nasty trades that are going against direction 
and 
> > > reduces the number of days in the markets.
> > > > 
> > > > The real question is:  what the hell is the "trend"?  I'm 
afraid 
> > I 
> > > don't have a single objective answer for that one.  I do have a 
> > bunch 
> > > of objective answers:  13sma; 21sma, TRIX(21), and a bevy 
> > > of "homemade" trend indicators.  
> > > > 
> > > > What I find, in almost all the testing, is that most systems 
> > return 
> > > higher points in the raw form.  What most people don't consider 
is 
> > > the time committed to these trades.  You state that the simple 
> > system 
> > > returns +1170% and the condition brings it below +500%.  Have 
you 
> > > factored or considered that the qualifier keeps you out of the 
> > market 
> > > for "x" amount of days?
> > > > 
> > > > The only "real" return that I look at is: percent per day 
> > return.  
> > > +1170% is a very spiffy return, but I'd rather take +500% if I 
only 
> > > have to commit 1/3 of the time to accomplish it.
> > > > 
> > > > Just something to keep in mind when one is comparing 
results.  
> > > Result analysis and ranking of issues are the most bastardized 
> > issues 
> > > that mechanical traders have to deal with.
> > > > 
> > > > Take care,
> > > > 
> > > > Steve
> > > >   ----- Original Message ----- 
> > > >   From: Herman van den Bergen 
> > > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx 
> > > >   Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2003 7:39 AM
> > > >   Subject: RE: [amibroker] Re: Tillson and Jurik
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > >   Hello DT,
> > > > 
> > > >   you'll have to ask Steve, this is not own of my systems.
> > > > 
> > > >   h
> > > > 
> > > >   -----Original Message-----
> > > >   From: DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS [mailto:TSOKAKIS@x...]
> > > >   Sent: Wednesday, September 03, 2003 2:27 AM
> > > >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   Subject: [amibroker] Re: Tillson and Jurik
> > > > 
> > > > 
> > > >   Herman,
> > > >   What was the purpose of the MA(C,21) additive conditions ?
> > > >   The simple system runs at +1170%[for your settings], the MA
> > (C,21)
> > > >   conditions brings it below +500%...
> > > >   Dimitris Tsokakis
> > > >   --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Herman van den Bergen"
> > > >   <psytek@xxxx> wrote:
> > > >   > [Steve Karnish] Maybe he can post the equity graph for 
the 
> > > group....
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
> > > >   > AmiBroker report attached.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   -----Original Message-----
> > > >   >   From: CedarCreekTrading [mailto:kernish@x...]
> > > >   >   Sent: Tuesday, September 02, 2003 1:53 PM
> > > >   >   To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > > >   >   Subject: [amibroker] Tillson and Jurik
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Dave,
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Although I have "knocked back beers" with Tim many 
times, 
> > he 
> > > has
> > > >   never
> > > >   >   offered a systematic approach that incorporates the 
T3.  In 
> > > fact,
> > > >   for much
> > > >   >   of the last 18 months, Tim has played with the StoRSI 
> > (which 
> > > the
> > > >   Fort
> > > >   >   Collins group has tagged: "the Karnish System").  
Loosely
> > > >   interpreted, it
> > > >   > is
> > > >   >   a stochastically modified,  momentum oscillator.  He 
spent 
> > a 
> > > lot
> > > >   of time
> > > >   >   tweaking the variables of the formula and optimizing 
the 
> > > trigger
> > > >   levels.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I have teased Tim and Dave during the last year and 
called 
> > > them a
> > > >   bunch of
> > > >   >   "beer-guzzling, over-optimizers".  All in good fun.  
They 
> > are 
> > > much
> > > >   > brighter
> > > >   >   than I could ever aspire to.  In fact, Dave is going to 
> > speak
> > > >   this month,
> > > >   > to
> > > >   >   the Denver Trading Group, on the pitfalls of over-
> > > optimizing.  He
> > > >   and Tim
> > > >   >   did exactly that with the simple StoRSI approach to the
> > > >   >   QQQ's...over-optimized.  They have taken the StoRSI and
> > > >   substituted
> > > >   >   optimized variables in the formula.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   When I offered the StoRSI, systematic approach, to the 
their
> > > >   group, in
> > > >   >   December of '01, I suggested applying it to the QQQ's 
with 
> > a 
> > > 13
> > > >   and 87
> > > >   >   trigger.  I also suggested applying a trend qualifier.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Recently, Herman sent me a nice "picture" of the 
results of 
> > > this
> > > >   system
> > > >   > (on
> > > >   >   the QQQ's) with a 21sma as the trade qualifier.  Maybe 
he 
> > can
> > > >   post the
> > > >   >   equity graph for the group.  I think the AFL library 
has 
> > all 
> > > the
> > > >   bloody
> > > >   >   details:
> > > >   >
> > > >   >    // Steve Karnish StoRSI
> > > >   >   StochRsi=EMA((RSI(8)-LLV(RSI(8),8))/(HHV(RSI(8),8)-LLV
(RSI
> > > >   (8),8)),3)*100;
> > > >   >   Buy=Cross(17,StochRsi) AND Ref(MA(C,21),-1) < MA(C,21);;
> > > >   >   Sell=Cross(StochRsi,83);
> > > >   >   Short=Cross(StochRsi,83) AND Ref(MA(C,21),-1) > MA
(C,21);
> > > >   >   Cover=Cross(17,StochRsi);
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   There seems to be a misconception among technical 
traders
> > > >   that "quicker
> > > >   > is,
> > > >   >   indeed, better".  Quicker is better only if it leads to 
a
> > > >   smoother and
> > > >   > safer
> > > >   >   equity curves.  There is no doubt that Tim and Jurik 
have
> > > >   developed some
> > > >   >   sensitive indicators.  Neither has incorporated them 
into 
> > > trading
> > > >   systems
> > > >   >   (as far as I know).
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   As you are aware, many indicators are helpful in the 
hands 
> > of 
> > > a
> > > >   > disciplined
> > > >   >   "artist" that can apply them to markets to make 
subjective
> > > >   decisions.
> > > >   > Since
> > > >   >   I don't trust myself to interpret "wiggles", I lean 
more 
> > > toward
> > > >   formulae
> > > >   >   that can be slammed into objective approaches that can 
be
> > > >   backtested (in
> > > >   > and
> > > >   >   out of sample).
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I appreciate vendors like Fitchen (Aberration) that can 
> > > produce a
> > > >   >   independently, verifiable track record.  At least when 
you 
> > > plunk
> > > >   your
> > > >   > money
> > > >   >   down, you know what has occurred during the last five 
> > years.  
> > > I
> > > >   am less
> > > >   >   excited about vendors who peddled subjective tools that 
are 
> > > left
> > > >   to the
> > > >   >   buyers discretion (to be applied to markets).  $300 for 
a 
> > > black
> > > >   box
> > > >   > formula
> > > >   >   is not something I'm going to spend my money for.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   For that matter, I have 100 formulas that I will sell 
you 
> > for 
> > > $3
> > > >   each (or
> > > >   > $3
> > > >   >   for all of them).  There's quite a difference between 
> > > a "formula"
> > > >   and a
> > > >   >   "systematic approach".  Do you want "tools" or do you 
> > > want "tools
> > > >   and
> > > >   >   rules"?  Building the "grail" starts with a reliable 
> > indicator
> > > >   (there are
> > > >   >   dozens).  This is only the starting point.  I get 
excited 
> > when
> > > >   someone
> > > >   >   builds the entire mousetrap.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   I will contact Tim and ask him for examples (besides 
the 
> > > public
> > > >   articles)
> > > >   > of
> > > >   >   how to incorporate the T3 into a trading approach.  
Jurik's 
> > > work
> > > >   is
> > > >   > floating
> > > >   >   around and I'm sure someone can comment on how to apply 
his
> > > >   indicators.
> > > >   > Try
> > > >   >   super-imposing a 10 period ema on top of the Jurik or 
> > Tillson
> > > >   work (hard
> > > >   > to
> > > >   >   tell the difference).  I believe Perry Kaufman turned 
me on 
> > to
> > > >   it.  Keep
> > > >   > in
> > > >   >   mind, there is a lot of good stuff for free.
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Take care,
> > > >   >
> > > >   >   Steve
> > > >   >
> > > >   >
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