[amibroker] MAcross, EMAcross Prediction [a qualitative description]

["Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx>]

As explained at
<FONT 
color=#000000 face=Arial 
size=2>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/44790
the next bar Close necessary for an MAk, MAp cross 
is
 
 
MAcrossClose=(p*(k-1)*<FONT 
size=2>MA(C,k-<FONT 
size=2>1)-k*(p-1<FONT 
size=2>)*MA<FONT 
size=2>(C,p-1<FONT 
size=2>))/(k-p);
With similar math procedure we may calculate the 
next bar Close necessary for an EMAk, EMAp cross
 
EMAcrossClose=((p+1<FONT 
size=2>)*(k-1)*EMAk-(k+<FONT 
size=2>1)*(p-1<FONT 
size=2>)*EMAp)/(2<FONT 
size=2>*(k-p));
Let us see a qualitative comparison:
The green line is the actual Close, the red is the 
EMAcrossClose and the black is the MAcrossClose.
We may see some periods with absurd high [or low] 
values. The trend is very strong, a probable cross
which would signal the change of the trend is not 
visible in the near future.
The highest [lowest] prediction curves point gives 
the turning point of the market.
[H1, L1 for the MAcrossClose and H2, L2 for the 
EMAcrossClose ]
A descending cross confirms the bullish 
trend.[point X]
An ascending cross confirms the bearish trend. 
[point Y]
When both red/black lines are descending, we have a 
mutual confirmation of the trend.
[covariant lines area]
When they have opposite directions, the phase is 
ambiguous and it is better to wait for more clear signals.
[contravariant lines area]
 
For your own further analysis, paste in your 
indicator builder the code
 
// MAcross, 
EMAcross Prediction curves, by Dimitris Tsokakis, July 2003<FONT 
face=Arial>
Plot(C,"Close"<FONT 
size=2>,5,<FONT 
size=2>8);<FONT 
face=Arial>
K=30<FONT 
face=Arial>;EMAk=<FONT 
size=2>EMA(C,k);<FONT 
face=Arial>// Plot(EMAk,"EMAk",1,8);<FONT 
face=Arial>
p=20<FONT 
face=Arial>;EMAp=<FONT 
size=2>EMA(C,p);<FONT 
face=Arial>// Plot(EMAp,"EMAp",2,8);<FONT 
face=Arial>
EMAcrossClose=((p+1<FONT 
size=2>)*(k-1)*EMAk-(k+<FONT 
size=2>1)*(p-1<FONT 
size=2>)*EMAp)/(2<FONT 
face=Arial>*(k-p));
Plot(EMAcrossClose,<FONT 
size=2>"EMAcrossClose",4<FONT 
size=2>,8<FONT 
face=Arial>);
MAcrossClose=(p*(k-1)*<FONT 
size=2>MA(C,k-<FONT 
size=2>1)-k*(p-1<FONT 
size=2>)*MA<FONT 
size=2>(C,p-1<FONT 
face=Arial>))/(k-p);
Plot(MAcrossClose,<FONT 
size=2>"MAcrossClose",1<FONT 
size=2>,8<FONT 
face=Arial>);
GraphXSpace=5<FONT face=Verdana 
size=2>;
 
For some periods the description of the stock behavior may be quite 
reliable.
Enjoy !!
Dimitris Tsokakis






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