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Dominick,
I picked my bull and bear periods *for testing* by eyeballing charts
of the major indices. But I trade them essentially the same
regardless of what I think market conditions are, or will be, because
the patterns are robust and nobody knows what the markets will do. I
guess an exception is that sometimes I'm more careful to cut losses
early than at other times, but this has backfired also.
I think the best way to trade patterns is to find a few robust ones
and then trade them on "well behaved" issues (to paraphrase Steve
Karnish). I'd be very careful about assigning "probabilities" as if
you're talking about a stationary process like a roulette wheel
because the markets are not. But taking an actuarial approach, e.g.,
"this has happened 70% of the time in the past" is OK as long as you
realize it's only a statistic and that the future will be different.
Mark
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "dom1_1998" <Dom2000@xxxx> wrote:
> Hi Mark:
>
> Looks like high tech stuff. You mentioned testing under bearish then
> bullish conditions. If I'm not intruding on proprietary info what
> indicators and length of time are you using to determine bear and
> bullish periods?
>
> Anthony is feverishly working, (God bless him), on the columns that
> will show the probabilities of profit and loss results. Then to do it
> the way you suggest, which is the most accurate way to value a
> pattern, an if/then bear or bull indicator for a particular time
> period could be written.
>
> What do you think?
>
> Dominick
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