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Hi Dominick,
I did a similar research and I can tell you
that you are on the right path! :-)
Statistics and Probability is indeed the answer.
Here you can find some of my results:
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/abtool/message/762
If you would like to test/evaluate my method
drop me an email.
Regards,
Uenal Mutlu
http://www.xxsystems.com || http://groups.yahoo.com/group/abtool
----- Original Message -----
From: "Dominick" <Dom2000@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, July 10, 2003 2:24 AM
Subject: [amibroker] Re: Calculating Stats
>
> nthony U DA MAN!! You have the patience of a saint.
>
> We are almost there. I did some manual calculations for added examples.
> I'll just stick with the 1day up following the pattern for simplicity.
> Enclosed is the chart of ERES with each pattern indicated.
>
> Stock: ERES
> Total bars 252
> Total patterns 18 which is 7.14% of total bars.
> Out of 18 patterns 14 were up the next day and 4 down.
> Probability of next day being up after pattern = (18/14)= 77.78%
> summing of all 1day ups %profit= 62.2%
> Average profit % = (62.2 / 14) = 4.44%.
> Highest profit % = 9%
> Lowest profit % = 0.1%
>
> Probabiltiy of next day being down after pattern = (4/18)= 22.2%
> sum of losses = (-4.57%)
> Average loss % = (-4.57/4)= (-1.14%)
> Highest loss % = (-3.3%)
> Lowest loss % = (-.03%)
>
> Average reward/risk ratio =3.89:1 (4.44/1.14) (avg win/avg loss)
>
> The above are the most important stats. It looks like 16 columns are
> required from ticker to average reward/risk ratio just for the 1dayup
> after the pattern. After that it looks like 12 additional columns for
> each added day. That's a bunch of columns. It wouldn't bother me
> because I'm using (4) 19" monitors. :))
>
> I'm a short term trader so I would like to see the stats for at least 2
> or 3 days added but what are your thoughts?
>
> TIA,
>
> Dominick
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