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Yuki,
You noticed evidence of spread trading. Over here it is the ESF
(Exchange Stabilization Fund) not the FRB that does it. Of course,
it may have been the ESF fiddling with your market also. Their
efforts know no bounds. See below some comments from James Sinclair
who reviews the authority a wayward Congress has alloted them. I
still like to say Congress cannot delegate authority it does not
have, but a lot of people won't listen.
Pub. L. 97-258, Sept. 13, 1982, 96 Stat. 994.)
" Jim Sinclair's Comments: The Secretary of the US Treasury is
entitled to direct the Exchange Stabilization Fund to trade in any
market on the planet in any currency, commodity, (including gold) or
security if the Secretary considers it advisable and the President
agrees.No one can review or question the decisions made by the
Secretary of the Treasury.
Limiting factor:
The currency markets and the bond markets have grown so enormous
internationally that we have already seen that the Exchange
Stabilization Fund is best suited to hard quick moves into the market
at critical technical junctures to provide the impetus for the
markets to go in the direction desired by the government. If it were
otherwise, the action of the ESF would have been distinctly different
in the dollar market from what I have been pointing out to you
regularly.
I believe that the ESF in today's market is a massive spread trader
that lifts selective legs to manipulate prices in the direction of
government intention and not outright traders. Simply stated, the ESF
is up to its ass in derivatives like the rest of the Cartel of Common
Interest young mathematical maniacs. Please note that it is the ESF
and not the Fed that can fiddle in every market.
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve
Nobody in the Gold Community wants me to print the Act of 1913 that
entitled the Federal Reserve. It would bore you to tears so I will
summarize it correctly for you. First, you most understand that as
long as the Federal Reserve Board agrees with its Chairman it is a
democracy. That is implicit in the two ...." very long article.
But it is good you keep track of these activities while it is still
required that the CoT of it be published.
JT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Yuki Taga <yukitaga@xxxx> wrote:
> We have talked about CoT on this board in the past, and I would be
> interested in anyone's interpretation of the interesting and
somewhat
> dramatic change in Nikkei CoT data as of 6/17.
>
> If you look at it http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm
second
> to last on the page, you will see what I consider to be a strikingly
> large drop in open interest on the commercial side. In the case of
> long commercial interest, the drop was well more than 50 percent of
> the total commercial long interest (actually about 62+ percent), and
> also a striking drop (but less, and less than 50 percent) in open
> interest on the short side.
>
> For those not following the Nikkei, it's now suddenly up about 20
> percent since 4/28, when it hit yet another of several 20-year lows
> marked early this year. About 1/3 of the recent run up was in May,
> and a seesaw movement, the other 2/3 in the first 3 weeks of June,
> and pretty much a straight arrow up, which now appears set for
> serious consolidation.
>
> One thing that is clear for sure is that commercials stayed net
short
> (and are still net short) throughout this ferocious rally (I am
> interested to know if this has been the case with the S & P in the
> US, too). But now, even with foreign money starting to pile in
here,
> commercial interest on both sides of the market has suddenly dropped
> by a percentage that I have not noticed before. Any interpretive
> attempts welcome.
>
> Steve . . . you are a futures guy. ^_-
>
> Yuki ^_^
>
> P.S. Non-commerical shorts clearly got hammered out of the market,
as
> open interest there also dropped by about 1/3, while non-commercial
> longs stayed about the same. I would be tempted to say 'important
> intermediate top' now, seeing the imbalance on the long side in
> non-commercial interest. But the large commercial exits puzzle me.
> The only thing I can come up with off the top of my head is some
> unwinding of a huge spread or hedge. Nothing about it has any
> predictive value for me, sadly.
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