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[amibroker] Re: Walk-Forward Out of Sample (OOS) Testing



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b,

Actually you bring up some interesting points one of which I hadn't 
initially thought of but of course that is why I was asking the 
questions I was i.e. 

1.  Are we testing some optimizable system oriented parameters for 
some fixed user selectable lookback period or window which is either 
based on an anchored first data point or is a moving window as time 
goes along ... or ...

2.  Are we testing a static system for some optimizable lookback 
window ? ... or ...

3.  All of the above ? ... or ...

4.  Something else ?

I suspect it's #1 as I'm not sure optimizing the lookback period has 
merit ... or at least not more than once per full run i.e. we might 
want to see how changing the size of the lookback period or window 
size affects the results overall as we might want to see how using 
different lengths of out of smaple data affects the results before we 
reoptimize but I don't think having varying lookback periods or 
window sizes has merit, do you ?  This "feels" way to curve fit.

Fred

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred" <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> It's okay ... I think Mark thinks it's over my head ...
> 
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "b519b" <b519b@xxxx> wrote:
> > Fred,
> > 
> > I think you and Mark have misunderstood each other over the use 
of 
> > the terms "segment" and "period". Like you, I first read these as 
> > synonyms, but after re-reading Mark's post, it appears they are 
> > completely distinct.
> > 
> > Reading them as synonyms gives the following:
> > Test 3 time segments. Select the best period (=time segment) and 
> use 
> > the parameter setting from that segment. As you point out such an 
> > approach would problematic.
> > 
> > Reading period and segment as being distinct gives:
> > Test the 3 time segments. Select the best period (=parameter 
> > setting), ie, select the look-back period in the sample code 
which 
> > gives the best profit factor for all 3 of the time segments. Use 
> > this parameter (ie, look back "period") for time segment 4. And 
so 
> > on.
> > 
> > I think Mark has the second approach in mind. But Mark can 
correct 
> > me if I am wrong.
> > 
> > b


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