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^VIX analysis again, from another point of view.
http://technical.traders.com/tradersonline/display.asp?art=1106
Although OEX divergences are obvious [and repetitive] since mid
April, the market still goes higher.
The idea to combine price divergence with trendlines breakout also
failed. The previous
OEX support trendline, defined by the main mid-March/end-March lows
WAS BROKEN
and the market went back to the top with increased power...
Divergences do not offer turn-key solutions for any market at any
time.
Nice graphs, but...
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
wrote:
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Eugene" <johngalt1234@xxxx>
wrote:
> > I will admit the absolute values of VIX have not been reliable at
> all.
> > We have seen higher prices and a declining VIX. I am using the
VIX
> as
> > only a confirmatory factor.
> This was EXACTLY my point, I didnīt see ^VIX confirming anything.
> If you see recent ^VIX D_sat, OK, it reacted at X, OK it moved
> upwards, BUT, ^NDX D_sat does not desaturates yet [the same with
> ^GSPC D_sat]
> DT
>
> Trading is all about possibilities and
> > when the risk to reward is good....I take a trade. I believe at
> these
> > levels the risk is rather moderate. Which is why we have stop
> losses?
> >
> > Eugene
> >
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > wrote:
> > > Eugene,
> > > Absolute ^VIX values were not that reliable the last month or
so.
> > > Be careful and good luck !!
> > > DT
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "epintoem" <epintoem@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > > > Dimitris,
> > > >
> > > > The value of the Vix is currently in a place where prior
> reversals
> > > > have occurred. I am currently trying to short the SP at
> 968.75. I
> > > > dont have an equivalent number for NDX. I believe that it
will
> > > follow.
> > > > I could be wrong but the driver for lower prices might be as
a
> > > result
> > > > of the SEC investigation of IBM and the preannouncements for
the
> > > > following quarter.
> > > > Just my two cents.
> > > > Eugene
> > > >
> > > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis"
> > > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> > > > wrote:
> > > > > Steve,
> > > > > Ascending ^VIX D_sat lines, combined with descending [or
> > > > desaturated] ^NDX D_sat are usually matching to bearish N100
> > > periods.
> > > > > [Dec signals were aligned to this rule].
> > > > > The recent situation was different. ^NDX D_sat remains
> relatively
> > > > high going to the top again and again.
> > > > > The same with the majority of the N100 stocks [look at the
> > > MeanD_sat].
> > > > > The last two months [April-May] ^NDX and the market refuse
to
> > > > desaturate with characteristic reaction points X1, X2, X3.
> > > > > ^VIX reacted at X, stopping its way down [the signal was
very
> good
> > > > to detect the local ^VIX low]
> > > > > Its positive orbit is not combined with the N100 lines and
> this
> > > fact
> > > > [among many others] made me cautious to consider it
> > > > > as a bearish signal. I was expecting the market to make a
> quick
> > > > double peak, the market not only confirmed but went a bit
> higher.
> > > > > Bearish scenarios do not seem to match the recent market
> outlook.
> > > > > I will not be surprised to see an attempt to May17, 2002
> peak...
> > > > > Going Short is not an easy job the last 160 bars, ^VIX
> behavior is
> > > > not always a copy-paste method.
> > > > > Day by day I change my opinion for the market, adding
> cautiously
> > > > more bullish salt and cutting the bearish peper into
> > > > > smaller [and smaller] pieces. Many indicators seem to agree
> with
> > > > this recipe.
> > > > > Anyway, I will wait to see market D_sat to de-saturate
first
> and
> > > > then de-dust the well known bearish scenarios [if
necessary...]
> > > > > Dimitris Tsokakis
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