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Ken,
thank you for the interesting site, you always take care of the list
and many readers appreciate it !!
The text is somehow simplistic, covering mainly step 2 [horizontal
support]. It gives extra emphasis to this element,
although it is not [IMO] the A and Z of T/A.
No, there are not magic reaction levels and 0.73 was just repeated
sometimes in the past [what would the author write with
the last 0.658 !!!], because RVIX is closely attached to price, it is
not an oscillator.
On the other side, I am not the right person to comment these charts,
I have never used such long time frames as 200MA
[I usually work with 30-40 bars indicators, maximum 80bars for some
Slow Stochastics like the below described Sqrt]
There is a beauty in 200 or 250MA, no doubt, I have met serious
analysts working exclusively these frames, but, it is not my style.
The same comments for the recent RNDX.** Although past levels rarely
exceeded 1, we are above 1 for more than 28 sessions WITHOUT ANY
SPECIAL REASON and without any super bullish events.
If you were considering 1 as the reaction level for RNDX, you would
Short the market on March13 and you would loose the whole part of the
recent [not so important] NDX uptrend.
Note also that the recent military affairs confused the market a lot.
If nothing else, this fact will cause a 20days delay to anything was
planned before [fibonacci time zones fans will be slightly inaccurate
in their calculations this period !!]
A final note : Some upcoming results may be good and give another
plastic impulse to the market.
As for myself, despites #6th paragraph, I am very happy to be >80%
cash this period, waiting for more clear signals.The last long
positions were closed last week, [except the miserable WN03 !!], no
important new Shorts, just waiting.
Thanks again
Dimitris
** Try a
C0=Foreign("^NDX","C");
Plot(C0/MA(C0,200),"RNDX",1,8);
C1=Foreign("^VIX","C");
Plot(C1/MA(C1,200),"RVIX",4,8);
in a database including both ^NDX and ^VIX
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken Close" <closeks@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris: you may want to read about Relative VIX at
>
>
>
> http://www.zealllc.com/2003/rvix.htm
>
>
>
> Let me know your reaction...if you have one.
>
>
>
> Ken
>
>
>
>
>
> These are the main ^VIX graphs I watch everyday.
> 4. and 5. say that we expect a new N100 bearish period.
>
> 3 says to wait for a great "Buy the Market" signal more than 20
bars.
> The results are yours.
> Dimitris Tsokakis
>
>
>
>
>
>
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