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RE: [amibroker] Re: Parameter selection, MCS (for Thomas)



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  size=2>-----Original Message-----From: tchan95014 
  [mailto:tchan95014@xxxxxxxxx]Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2003 4:37 
  PMTo: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxSubject: [amibroker] Re: 
  Parameter selection, MCS (for Thomas)Hi, 
  Chuck,Thanks for the confirmation.All my systems generate many 
  signals during the test history. Thus my question about 1%/99%. The system 
  itself is not that discriminatory as yours, hence every candidate can 
  generate many if not hundreds of trades during, say, 10 years 
  history.During the backtest, many of the potential candidates generate 
  negative returns over the history. I generally cut them off from the 
  final portfolio. [ the character shift of individual stock is always 
  at the back of my mind, but I just can not handle the amount of trades 
  coming, so I have do something about it. ]I am firstly attracted 
  to your posts when you mentioned about removng the top performers in 
  further finding optimal parameter sets, because just started about 2 
  months ago, I realized there are some superstars in some of my systems, I 
  suspected that they bend the parameter set so much, it is not 
  representative any more. In my test on N100, I can repeat the process you 
  mentioned 2 or 3 times until there is No super performers any more, I then 
  put every one back to the candidate pool and using the last parameter set 
  to prune the pool again for the final portfolio, then it is up to the 
  system as well as my pruning process to pick up or not pick up the 
  superstars.I force parameters shift, use student t test as well as 
  XLSim to help me gauge the stability of my system.I heard about 
  TraderSim but never really look into it, I will now. Using XLSim requires 
  extensive preparation because it is designed for general use.Thank 
  you very much for your posts.Thomas--- In 
  amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Chuck Rademacher" <chuck_rademacher@x> 
  wrote:> My calculations/indicators/functions are such that they take 
  very few trades> on any one stock.   Over ten years of 
  data, each stock might trade (on> average) about five times.  
  Many stocks might not trade at all with one> system and very 
  frequently by another system.> > The only subtle difference 
  about what I am doing compared to many system> developers is that I 
  don't pre-screen stocks.   I don't have various watch> 
  lists for different groups of stocks.   No watchlist for 
  sectors.   No> watchlists for high dividends.   
  No watchlists for low P/E ratios.   No high> Zacks 
  ratings.   No low Morningstar ratings.   I have all of 
  that> information in my data and each system looks at all of those 
  things every> day for every stock.   If I were to make a 
  watch list containing low P/E> stocks.   Exactly what 
  timeframe would I use to make that determination.> 
  Today?   Last week?    Ten years 
  ago?    Why not put it in the data along> with open, 
  high, low, close, volume, etc. for each stock for each day and> let 
  the system do the work?> > I do, however, have watch lists that 
  contain a purely random selection (out> of the 13,500 stocks) so 
  that I can try a new system idea without having to> go through all 
  of the stocks to see if it has merit.   I have two 
  waitlists,> for instance, each containing exactly 50% of the 
  stocks.  Basically, every> other stock.    I 
  have four waitlists that each contain a random selection> of 25% of 
  the total stock universe.> > What are your 
  thoughts?>   -----Original Message----->   
  From: tchan95014 [mailto:tchan95014@xxxx]>   Sent: Sunday, 
  April 20, 2003 3:15 AM>   To: 
  amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>   Subject: [amibroker] Re: 
  Parameter selection, MCS (for Chuck)> > >   Hi, 
  Chuck,> >   Thanks again.> >   
  If I read you right, your system is exploiting some 
  fundamental>   movement of the stock universe, since the 
  pattern does not occur very>   often you make it up with 
  vast amount of candidates (for validity of>   your test 
  results as well as trading opportunities). Sort of like 
  the>   pair trading you talked about. Is this 
  correct?> >   Then, do you have system like, for 
  example a RSI system that signals>   generate on every 
  stocks in various to times? If yes, how do you>   screen for 
  candidates then? In this case, a system might FIT only 
  say>   1% of the universe, because the test results show 
  other 99% over 10>   years are net losers.> 
  >   Thanks again for your insight.> 
  >   Thomas> > 
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