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[amibroker] Re: Real World Systems - Multiple Sub Signals



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Ken,

Multiple sub-signals as it were have long been around and are 
typified by Ultra Systems software.  If you think about it even 
simple systems like RUTTR use this principle in that the MACD & 
Stochastic must agree.  This concept can be used a lot of different 
ways.  It can be used as a voting system like RUTTR does where there 
must be a unanimous vote before taking action or it can be used to 
decide to what level one should be invested i.e. 25%, 50% 100% etc.

--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Ken Close" <closeks@xxxx> wrote:
>  Multiple Sub Signals: - here is a real world trading approach that 
I
> have never seen mentioned here.  I would like to get some reaction.
> This is based on some real world trading that is happening on 
another
> platform that I am helping port over to AB.
> 
>  
> 
> The idea is to have signals for multiple subsystems and then take 
your
> trading signal when a majority of the subsignals "line up".
> 
>  
> 
> For discussion purposes, visualize a mov avg cross over   AND
> 
> A volume oscillator   AND
> 
> An advance decline curve   AND
> 
> Perhaps a VIX type signal.
> 
>  
> 
> If you let each one be a buy or sell, and call each S1, S2, S3, S4
> 
>  
> 
> then your buy statement could be 
> 
>  
> 
> Buy = S1 AND S2 AND S3 AND S4.
> 
>  
> 
> This might be a little too stringent, so perhaps you code it to 
give a
> buy if 3 of the 4 signals are a buy and you do not care which ones.
> 
>  
> 
> In the work that I am doing with this approach, I am seeing that 
each
> S(i) has a return and a dd over a long period of time, but as you 
add
> combinations of the signals, the return increases a little bit but 
the
> dd seems to drop and drop quite a bit.  An example might be returns 
for
> each one individually of say 8-10% CAR and 13-15% dd, but when 3 
out of
> 4 are combined as I describe above, the resulting return might be 9-
12%
> CAR and 6-9% dd.   These are not barn burners, and those seeking or
> actually trading 50-100% CAR systems will laugh as they hit delete, 
but
> for some folks who are risk adverse, or managing retirement 
portfolios,
> or whatever, this kind of approach might have some appeal.
> 
>  
> 
> In the work I have done so far, there has been NO OPTIMIZATION of 
the
> parameters within the subsystems.  Any In sample period compares
> favorably with OOS periods.  The results look steady over 12 years 
of
> data, with variations due to changing market conditions.  (I am not 
sure
> "IS and OOS" apply when no optimization has been done, but what I 
mean
> is that breaking the total time period up into sections shows no 
real
> degradation or "blowup" of one period relative to the other.)
> 
>  
> 
> The details of the subsystems are not the issue here-what I am 
raising
> is the question of the drawdown dampening effect of the 
combination.  Is
> this a mathematically correct thing to expect?  Does moving in this
> direction promise dd reduction?   Assuming you select subsystems 
that
> are not highly correlated, should you not expect improvements in the
> combination that are not possible in the single subsystems?
> 
>  
> 
> Any comments?  Build-upons?  What?
> 
>  
> 
> Ken


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