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Are you sure about that ? How are the trend lines drawn ?
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "epintoem" <epintoem@xxxx> wrote:
> A real world system that is profitable is one that is based on the
> dynamics of market movement. Indicators are a wonderful tool but
they
> fail at times because they do not take into account "reading the
> tape". I use short term trend lines to trade futures and for the
most
> part if the system is followed can be profitable depending on the
time
> frame one wants to trade. Unfortunately, because of the way the
trend
> lines are drawn there is no mechanical way to test it.
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, Fred Tonetti <ftonetti@xxxx>
wrote:
> > Ken,
> >
> > Although I don't disagree with your list of "bad ones" per se I
> > characterize and look at these somewhat differently ...
> >
> > 1. Too narrow a market timeframe test so as not to cover both
bull
> > and bear periods. IMHO those that adopt the practice of writing
systems
> > to test only bullish periods or only bearish periods are asking
for
> > trouble.
> >
> > 2. Too few signals for the results to be statistically
significant.
> > Personally I like to have systems that show lots (read hundreds)
of
> > signals that occur end to end NOT side by side. What I mean by
that is
> > if I have a system that potentially trades 100 different things (
Like
> > the individual stocks of NDX ) and over the course of time they
generate
> > 1000 trades but lots of those trades overlap in time then to my
way of
> > thinking these overlapping trades do not constitute end to end
trades
> > and therefore do not count.
> >
> > 3. As far as the remainder of your list goes, to me this all
comes
> > down to the robustness of the system which can mean several
things but
> > the simplified explanation to me means it either does well on out
of
> > sample or it doesn't. I don't particularly care if a system has
too
> > many variables ( what is too many ? 3 ? 30 ? 300 ? ) or the
increment is
> > too small ( what is too small ? 5 ? 0.5 ? 0.05 ? ) or the system
can be
> > used only on one segment of the market(s) i.e. I'd be quite happy
having
> > a system that I could trade S&P e-mini's with if it worked well
in & out
> > of sample even if it couldn't be used for any other thing.
> >
> > Fred
> >
> > > A "bad one has....
> > > ....too many variables
> > > ....too short a time period
> > > ....to small an increment in the optimizing variable
> > > ....too few issues/too many issues
> > > ....each stock/or future has its own optimized parameters
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