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The first [and the last] word : I hate probability [theory and
application] when related to human affairs [and I still consider
trading as a human activity].
The reason is just simple. I feel like a victim, when the time comes
to apply any result : It is 85% positive and 15% negative. But, in
the very next second my order "sell" will be 100% done and the result
will be 100%+ or 100%-. I canīt stand it !!
Day by day I increase the distance from an 100% mechanical system. A
good system is a good advice, nothing more.
I need to be there, to estimate various parameters and take a cool
decision. I avoid to code my decision criteria and, much more, to
apply statistics on them. a secondary syndrom, the last 4 months, is
to take a quick +10% and go. Perhaps my codes will proove later that
this was the right strategy for this ambiguous period, but I really
donīt care. I just apply the general feeling from more than 80
[sophisticated]curves. There is a living internal agreement in this
small coding universe and the question is my position in this endless
game. The last 9 months my signals were on the right side, no
surprise at all. The first wrong signal/decision will be interesting
[it will be out of the new "probable" !!!] and will be posted
immediately.Even in this case, it will be atleast funny to say "37
correct movements, 1 wrong, letīs make the division and calculate the
probability for the next movement !!
I hope it is clear, although it is 100% personal.
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "gosub283" <gosub283@xxxx> wrote:
> DT,
>
> Yes, I too have looked into the FFT. You are right, the Fast Forier
> Transform does try to "predict" by by identifying the predominant
> wave amplitude and duration. Ehlers uses other versions as well
> as his own modifications and filters. His waveform studies are
truly
> impressive. Having said that, I have yet to see Transform system
give
> any better results than a good indicator based system submitted by
> people like yourself and others.
>
> If we look at Ehlers articles in S&C mag. over the past couple of
> years, his highly complicated systems don't seem to be any more
> accurate than a well constructed conventional indicator system.
> (I base this comment on the buy/sell signals and trade results
> published in these same articles)
>
> Even when a Transform identifies the predominant waveform, we still
> don't know if the next developing trend will conform to this
> waveform. It may just be a small blip which conforms to one of the
> many minor waves (of different timeframe)which are also part of the
> same data set. Once again, a gamble of probability.
>
> I know....I keep coming back to that word...."Probability".
> I'm beginning to think that studies in math probability are the
> way to go. Assigning prabability ratings to various outcomes based
on
> the "setup" of Volume, Gaps, price runs, etc..from the previous
> day(s). DT, any thoughts or experience with that theory ?
>
> Cheers,
> gosub
> Hey, you guys on the plunge protection team....
> leave the NASDAQ alone....let it fall !
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > There is also a recent [interesting] discussion at
> > http://forum.esignalcentral.com/showthread.php?
> > s=a2b3dcf4416e6a5431d6d44c605b0050&threadid=436&pagenumber=1
> > DT
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