|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
>
>I am not so sure humans do a much better job of this analysis than do
>computers. When we look at charts, we are looking at 100..
I have to dissagree on that one,
People do a better job then computers without a doubt.
The only thing that might be able to out-predict humans (But not yet) are
AI's - As of today - They are no where near powerfull enough for the task.
Except mabie those deep blue computers from IBM - If Adapted to Market
rather than chess.
And yes - We are talking predicting the outcome of an event based on
current position and historical referece.
The reasoning (Very Simplified) is that prediction - is one of the core
survival traits of our species.
Every decision we make every day - Is based on Prediction - ie Past
experience/knowledge of events or strings of events.
(Or Trends if you want to make an analogy to the trading world)
Very true we can not "ForSee" the future - But we are VERY good at
"Predicting" it. And that's why we are here discussing it rather than
peeling bananas in the trees ;-)
RE:
>you can truly set up a valid blind test yourself). Now see how "good"
>your human brain is at identifying the transitions in "real time".
>And good luck! ^_-
And on the flip side of the coin - How would a Computer fair With no
Helpfull programming from us "Humans" eg. Prewritten indicators or even
selflearning indicator code (AI weighting)????
You gota remember - Computers are only what WE program them to be.
KR
Michael.
>I am not so sure humans do a much better job of this analysis than do
>computers. When we look at charts, we are looking at 100 percent
>history.
> It is indeed rather easy to "segment" this history into
>trending and ranging periods using analytical abilities. Yes, it
>does happen in seconds, and seems almost effortless.
>
>However, the most important time period for any trader is that period
>of time which is NOT VISIBLE on the chart -- namely, the future. We
>can "see" the ranging and trending periods, but only in retrospect,
>where our minds make nice, neat visual categories for us based on
>what we *see*. But at the "real time" turning points, when the
>actual transition is in the future, out of sight, I doubt if either
>human or computer can reliably identify these transitions in advance.
>(Reliably to me would be with some statistical edge that clearly
>beats random guessing.)
>
>In hindsight, it is all so clear of course -- so clear that it is
>tempting to believe that one can find some mathematical formula that
>will reveal all. But this is a sect in the cult of "Holy Grail-ism"
>in my opinion. To test my theory that human beings are not any better
>at identifying the transitions in "real time" than computers, scroll
>a chart very slowly (bar by bar) from left to right, with the future
>always off the screen, just as in real life. Make sure the chart is
>a completely unknown issue or index, and preferably one with the
>dates entirely removed or obscured (to do this test correctly someone
>else will probably need to set up a blind test for you, I don't think
>you can truly set up a valid blind test yourself). Now see how "good"
>your human brain is at identifying the transitions in "real time".
>And good luck! ^_-
>
>Yuki
>
>
>Yahoo! Groups Sponsor
>ADVERTISEMENT
><http://rd.yahoo.com/M=243066.2784921.4151384.1927555/D=egroupweb/S=1705632198:HM/A=1377501/R=0/*http://www.verisign.com/cgi-bin/go.cgi?a=b30890113200616000>add212f.jpg
>add2176.jpg
>
>Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
>-----------------------------------------
>Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>(Web page:
><http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
>--------------------------------------------
>Check group FAQ at:
><http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html>http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
>
>
>Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to the
><http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/>Yahoo! Terms of Service.
------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor ---------------------~-->
Make Money Online Auctions! Make $500.00 or We Will Give You Thirty Dollars for Trying!
http://us.click.yahoo.com/yMx78A/fNtFAA/46VHAA/GHeqlB/TM
---------------------------------------------------------------------~->
Send BUG REPORTS to bugs@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Send SUGGESTIONS to suggest@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
-----------------------------------------
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
--------------------------------------------
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
Attachment:
Description: ""
Attachment:
Description: ""
|