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Depending on the time frame you are looking at for the trends, I have
always found the MACD of the weekly chart a fairly good indicator of trends
<font size=3 color=teal
face="Times New Roman">Cheers,
Graham
<span
>-----Original Message-----
From: Dimitris Tsokakis
[mailto:TSOKAKIS@xxxxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, 21 February 2003
5:00 PM
To: amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Subject: [amibroker] Trend
Detectors 1
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">Jayson,
Sorry for the +1 delay but here is a short description of some methods to
detect the significant trends
A.
The sqrt(StochD()) for various stochD periods
Creat first the composites from
N=80;
Y=sqrt(sqrt(StochD(N)*StochD(2*N)*StochD(3*N/2)*StochD(5*N/2)));
fast=DEMA(Y,10);
N=30;
Y=StochD(N)*StochD(2*N)*StochD(3*N/2)*StochD(5*N/2)/10^6;
slow=DEMA(Y,10);
AddToComposite(slow>fast,"~end","v");
AddToComposite(slow,"~slow","c");
AddToComposite(fast,"~fast","c");
AddToComposite(1,"~count","V");
Buy=0;
and then check in ind. builder the
Plot(100*Foreign("~end","v")/Foreign("~count","v"),"",7,2);
//
k=Foreign("~slow","c")/Foreign("~count","v");kk=Foreign("~fast","C")/Foreign("~Count","V");
// Plot(EMA(k,10),"SLOW",5,1);Plot(EMA(KK,10),"FAST",1,1);
// Plot(EMA(KK,10)-EMA(K,10),"",9,2);
the first plot gives Fig. trends1. [the yellow bars in the middle]compare it
with the recent N100 trends,
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">it is quite reliable and
descriptive
[Uncomment the rest for further study]
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">[the upper fig is the
<span
>
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">N1=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>80;<font
size=2>// H=C;L=C;// uncomment it for mutual
funds, the have no H, L values
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">F1=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>StochD<font
size=2>(N1)*StochD(2*N1)*StochD(3*N1/2)*StochD(5*N1/2);
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">F1=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>sqrt<font
size=2>(sqrt(F1));
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">N2=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>30<font
size=2>;
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">F2=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>StochD<font
size=2>(N2)*StochD(2*N2)*StochD(3*N2/2)*StochD(5*N2/2)/10^6;
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">Plot<font
size=2 face=Verdana>(DEMA(F1,10),"FAST",1,8<font
size=2>);
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">Plot<font
size=2 face=Verdana>(DEMA<font
size=2>(F2,10),"SLOW",5,8);
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">GraphXSpace=<font
size=2 face=Verdana>3<font
size=2>;
<span
>
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">
We may also have an idea about the measure [strength] of these trends and
finally have both, qualitative
and quantitative description for the bullish trends and the real bullish/bearish
proportion, using a simple
100*cum(yellowbars!=0)/cum(1). This simple result dictates your realistic
strategy about Long or Short
market intensions. If you see in the future the proportion slowly changing for
the benefit of bulls, you will
gradually change your techniques, following the market and not any illusions.
For the time being, the
yellow bars speak better than words. The mix of various StochD() periods gives
some guarantees that
you follow a wise and cool trading profile [you follow the trend AFTER it is
confirmed, you leave [please]
the trend when it is over]
When the yellow bars dissappear, any bullish idea is not profitable in the
medium term. The market WILL
make bullish expansions, the duration WILL BE short. If you are quick and catch
some minor trends, it
is OK, BUT, be ready to pull the trigger ASAP, these quick profits are sweet
but easily turn to losses !!
As long as the yellow bars grow up and increase their [uninterrupted]
magnitude, it is wise to wait for higher
prices for the market. Double peaks are also gently described and, in general,
this tiny indicator will not
send you to the opposite direction, even if you follow it till the last yellow
bar before zero.
But, Frankfurt opens in 3min, let me see it, I will continue with
B.
Dimitris Tsokakis
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=2
face="Times New Roman">
<font size=3
face="Times New Roman">
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