|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Fred,
the market will not change in one night. Nobody can erase 3 bearish
years at once.
It is not the same as 99. Many stocks were over-overbought at the end
of this period.
We do not see [yet] over-oversold stocks. Many p/e are still high.
As for the NN thesis, you may read it and then talk some points, if
it is interesting for the list.[BTW, the training period was in the
bullish era...]
I noticed some usual mistakes in the text. One of them is the total
absense of multiple training.
Since you wrote that you have some experience from NN, you should
know this usual NN trap: When you re-train NN you do not get the same
results !!
I have asked some NN vendors to explain this fact, but,
unfortunately, no reply yet [perhaps they... train their replies too]
If I do not have some replies to this basic NN question, I will not
pay closer attention to this [black box] method.
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred <fctonetti@xxxx>"
<fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> Given that as described it was written for and tested on some
segment
> of the bear market would one really expect it to continue to work
> when bear becomes bull ? What happens if the bear morphs into bull
> tomorrow ? In order to have a clue I suggest you test it on an out
> of sample for a couple of years prior to 2000. The "real world" as
> you referred to it clearly takes in more then the last 3 years.
This
> bear won't last forever.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis"
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>
> wrote:
> > An interesting ref was at
> > http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/message/33830
> > thanks to jnk1997 research.
> > Lieutenant Jason Kutsurelis thesis gives many details about the 5-
> year training period.
> > He does not mention how long was the tested period AFTER the NN
> training.
> > If NN is to approximate the past, then there are simpler methods.
> > I have an excellent oscillator since Jan2000.
> > It touches gently the edges of its horizontal channel, when the
> main N100 changes occur.
> > Sometimes anticipating and, in general, with insignificant lag.
> > It gives nice 6/6/0 results with a simple up/down level system.
> > Does any body know the future behavior of this fine oscillator ?
> > Certainly no !!
> > We may only hope to see a repetition, statistics is on our side.
> > 2 years later, another statistical project will explain, AFTER
THE
> REAL FACTS, if the oscillator was good or not.
> > We are in the wild world of real trading, not in a university
> classroom.
> > Dimitris Tsokakis
Post AmiQuote-related messages ONLY to: amiquote@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(Web page: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amiquote/messages/)
Check group FAQ at: http://groups.yahoo.com/group/amibroker/files/groupfaq.html
Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
|