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Fred,
you are still out of the subject. You try to understand me and my
way, it would be better to add your opinion [if any] to the exposed
questions.
But, since you are curious, I will give some lines [for the last time]
I do not know how your brain works, I am not a brain analyst and I do
not pay any respect to those left/right brain theories.
I have posted many extended studies here and in the AFL Library and
Files section.
You know, full codes, applications, gifs, explanations [as possible].
No secrets, no magic codeless results, this attitude is totally out
of my brain hemispheres.
I have introduced many innovative methods to study the market
behavior.
My target is a Technical Analysis "without dead woods", to borrow
this phrase from P. A. M. Dirac and his monumental
"Quantum Mechanicks without dead woods" article.
Except single indicators [the Relative Slope, the RSIt, the D-ratio,
the D-sat to name a few] I designed, materialise grace to
the superb Tomasz work and support and presented here for the first
time the theory of Composite tickers and their use to understand the
market better . Many applications followed, a lot of discussion and
CREATIVE criticism and, day by day, more friends use these tools .
I have proved [many times] the wrong logic of old T/A methods.
All this common stuff, MACD crossovers, RSI 30/70 etc, very popular
and easily accessed in ANY T/A site or booklet are just dead, I mean
you will loose your money with the slightest attempt to trade them. I
really do not know if they were profitable once upon a time, I do not
study T/A history [although it would be an interesting area, it would
be tempty to do it 20 years later perhaps with my left or right
hemisphere...].
The sure thing, for the last 3 years, is that you loose the half [or
more] of your money with any of those pop systems. You call this
period a "small window" but, for my study is the main thing. The
bearish cycle is not finished yet [as you probably agree], I sleep a
few hours BUT I sleep well and I am not dreaming any 99 bubble, I
sold the hole portfolio [and I mean it] when my EXCEL equity curve
crossed its 20-bar EMA, stay out for 5 months to calm down from the
shock and moved quickly to the next page.
Thanks to amibroker great structure and all these CREATIVE
discussions here I designed many new tools and I watch them in daily
basis [the 20 available amibroker sheets have 4 or 5 or even 6 graphs
per sheet and, believe it or not, it is useful material]
This daily observation gives some experience as time goes by.
When I receive converging signals from 20 or 30 sources and compare
with similar past behavior I come to some conclusions to "predict"
the next market movement.
Instead of posting full [and probably not interesting] details, I
present a simplistic pattern like a triangle or a support
breakout or an o/s MeanRSI, JUST TO INTRODUCE THE QUESTION.
If you are interested to see behind the curtain,there are 10 or 20 or
more converging reasons, it is not a simple triangle [how could it
be !! I am not a fool !!]
This is the way I work, I really do not care if you like this way or
not.
Since you are not my teacher, you will not tell me if it is "correct"
or not.
I hope it is enough for your curiosity about the way I act, the
question was not important for the readers and I have to concentrate
again, Ken asked a tough question at #32977 message, I have to
attempt some reply today.
I will refrain from answering personal questions in the future and I
hope you understand.
Back to the subject now, have you any brilliant idea about the
exposed questions ?
It would be interesting to know what to do if the market goes lower
and move to UNKNOWN technical areas.
And, please, do not tell me to look back in 98 or 95 levels, the
present situation HAS NOTHING TO DO with some similar by coincidence
levels traded 5 or 50 or 500 years ago. Since we deal with real
money, let us be serious, sir !!
Dimitris Tsokakis
--- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred <fctonetti@xxxx>"
<fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
>
> Sorry if you found that to be too personal.
>
> I just find it interesting that you post loads of code that are
> apparently useful to lots of folks but at the same time you seem to
> want to analyze in writing here and to "predict" using what I
> perceive to be discretionary methods. There is no correct way to
do
> this, one either makes money or they lose money. I've seen people
> use either method to success or ruin but I almost never see someone
> who is capable of integrating the two with success. It's a left
> brain / right brain kind of thing. Maybe you're one of those rare
> whole brain individuals who is capable of doing this.
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
<TSOKAKIS@xxxx>"
> <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > Fred,
> > personal questions will not help the situation.
> > It is not black or white and, above all, it is PERSONAL.
> > Any ideas for the subject appreciated.
> > DT
> > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "Fred <fctonetti@xxxx>"
> > <fctonetti@xxxx> wrote:
> > > Interesting, but again, discretionary or system trader ?
> > >
> > > --- In amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS
> > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx>"
> > > <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > > > I was a bit anxious to see ^NDX breaking its recent support
> line.
> > > > One of the basic characteristics was apparent today.
> > > > Below the support it is easy for the market to erase early
> gains.
> > > > This is the way the support becomes gradually a resistance.
> > > > We need some further evidence:
> > > > When the market will go lower and will attempt to reach again
> the
> > > > support/resistance level.
> > > > In the lack of success, the market should find new, lower
> > > equilibrium
> > > > areas. The lower we go the more uncertain.
> > > > With this "simple" mechanism we see new LLV for more than 3
> years.
> > > > The end of this procedure is not visible [for me]
> > > > Shall I spend some money to buy new glasses ?
> > > > Shall I trust the next fib level ?
> > > > Shall I decide for some Elliot subwave 3 of wave 4 as an
> > > alternative
> > > > of subwave 5 ?
> > > > Shall I trust a great automatic trading system with great
> profits
> > > in
> > > > the past ?
> > > > It is better to know BEFORE.
> > > > After the turning point, EVERYBODY will find the reason.
> > > > I have to know before.
> > > > And, it is not the easiest thing in the world.
> > > > Dimitris
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