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Hello
Al,
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Thanks
for your comment.
As for
the risk calculation, I think it is principle not only 20% because we check
every stock with our techn.analysis knowledge.
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But
ok, I agree, it is surely very difficult and maybe mostly impossible to find the
winner for the next day as it is such a short period.
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I
start to try it without money and look how profitable it is. They have alsothe
history of the last games available.
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<FONT face=Arial color=#0000ff
size=2>Thomas
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Thomas:
I haven't played the game, but I visited the web site and read the rules
for the High Five game. The High Five game is a good example of the use of
expectancy. You have 5 stocks from which to bet that will give you the highest
percent increase tomorrow. If you win, you get 3 times your bet. Now, the
probability of winning is 0.2 (1 chance out of 5). So, your expectancy isE =
0.2*3 - 0.8*1 or -0.2 (negative 20%). You have a negative expectancy
system, so in the long run you will lose. However, if your trading system
increases the odds above 20% due to your edge, then you can have a positive
expectancy system. To break even, your system of picking the right stock has
to increase your odds to 25% winners (E = 0.25*3-0.75*1 = 0). So, youhave to
have a system that is right more than 25% of the time to win
consistently over the long run.
To implement MM into the game, you can start out with $100,000 equity and
bet only 1% on any one day ($1,000). If you win, you now have $103,000,
so your next bet is $1,030. If you win, your new equity is now $106,090, so
your next bet is $1061. Etc. If you lose on your first bet, your new equity is
$99,000. So, your next bet is reduced to $990. This is an anti-martingaleMM
strategy. If, over the next few bets, you increase your equity to, say,
$120,000, you can begin taking higher overall risks by betting the market's
money plus your own. So, you could bet $1,200 of your own equity (still 1%)
plus, say, 5% of the $20,000 winnings ($1,000). So, your next bet would be
$2,200. If you win, you add $6,600 to your equity (rather than simply 3*$1,200
or $3,600). So, MM has increased your winnings by 83% on this bet withoutyour
risking any more of your own money.
Thanks for the post. If I have time, I might try playing some of the
games to practice MM. Of course, I first have to have a good trading system,
which I'm still working on.
Al V.
----- Original Message -----
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
<DIV
>From:
Thomas Zmuck
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Saturday, October 26, 20024:52
AM
Subject: [amibroker] Has anyone tried
http://www.stockbets.com/ ?
<FONT face=Arial
size=2>Hello,
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Has
anyone experience with <A
href="">http://www.stockbets.com/
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It looks very
interesting.
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With the "High
Five" game, you can make 200% /day.
But there are
also other games.
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What is good?
What is bed?
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Worksall
correct?
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Everycomment is
very appreciated.
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<FONT face=Arial
size=2>ThomasPost AmiQuote-related messages
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