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Tom,
I do not search for any kind of "bottom", it does not make sense to
me. A nearly 3-year bearish market will not change at once,
consequently it is not a matter of a sudden bottom. The market is
falling for various reasons and I can not accept that the market has
time or price "targets".
My question was for the probable continuation of the recent uptrend.
The market in 5 days went from o/s to o/b. After the first peak shall
we have a continuation ? Can we see this continuation through some
T/A tools ? Is there any technical indication on Oct18 or Oct21 to
suggest a continuation [or the opposite]?
It is a very sensitive and difficult T/A topic, very few references
and not organised, but very tempty to solve it somehow.
If we have a serious and well documented reason for a continuation,
we do not go to premature sell and we enjoy sweet profits.
Some indicators show that the trend is still here, not interrupted.
Some other show that the first part is over. For this second group i
need some continuation [or not] criteria.
I hope the question is clear. As for the solution, I will be so happy
to find out something. Any suggestion will be appreciated.
DT
--- In amibroker@xxxx, "office97" <palmharbor7@xxxx> wrote:
> Dimitris,
>
> I subscribe to John Murph's newsletter (Technical Analysis of the
> Financial Markets) and he thinks the bottom is in place for this
year!
>
> Regards
> Tom B
>
>
>
> Oct 15th,2002
> ------------------------------------------------------
> "UPSIDE TARGETS... Last week, we used Elliott Waves to pinpoint the
> apparent completion of a five-wave decline that started last
spring --
> which has led to the current rebound. In Elliott terms, after a
five-
> wave decline has been completed, prices will normally return to the
> top of the fourth wave. That means a potential move up to the
August
> highs in the major stock averages. There are also Fibonacci
> retracements to consider. In the case of the S&P 500, a minimum 38%
> retracement of the seven-month decline would carry to about the 920
> area. A full 50% retracment would carry to the August high near
965.
> That's our upside target zone -- which we think will probably be
> reached by January. In the case of the Dow, that would yield a
> potential uspide target to 9,000 -- which we mentioned last Friday.
> We're not prepared to say that we've seen the final bottom in this
> secular bear market. With the market entering its strongest
seasonal
> period, however, (and given the history of October bottoms) we
think
> the time window for further gains should extend into January. After
> that, we'll have to see."
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> --- In amibroker@xxxx, "DIMITRIS TSOKAKIS" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > Now I can be more specific :
> > I need an indication of 12/18 or, at least, 12/21 to hint that a
> > continuation is probable and the Market will remain o/b.
> > I know the question is very difficult, but it is equivalent to
> where
> > the money is.
> > I have some indications that the recent uptrend is still here,
> > without interruption, but this is a bit different.
> > The signal [if any] should be active after last Friday 12/18
close.
> > DT
> > --- In amibroker@xxxx, "Dimitris Tsokakis" <TSOKAKIS@xxxx> wrote:
> > > CSCO trendlines give the exact picture of the UP or DOWN
dilemma
> > for the next week(s).
> > > We shall see a breakout, in one way or another, since the
> triangle
> > formation came cautiously to an natural end.
> > > Market Direction indicators have already reached sharply to a
> first
> > peak [MACDBULL turned to 95% after two
> > > days at 96%] .
> > > We are in front of the most difficult T/A question, the
> > continuation of the bullish reaction.
> > > The market leaders have already announced the 3Q results.
> > > The trend makers did not leave any room for delayed action,
when
> > they pushed some stocks to a +10% gap up.
> > > [Many Short positions were not that profitable the last ten
days
> > and they were covered with significant losses]
> > > Now they need the trend followers to keep on buying higher and
> > higher.
> > > Are these followers convinced to do that ?
> > > Medium volume traders who did not buy IBM from $65 [Sept 19] to
> $55
> > [Oct 9], 15 full trading sessions, are forced now to buy above
> > $75 !!! It sounds a bit absurd...
> > > Is there any realistic perspective for such a delayed
enthusiasm ?
> > > 3 IBM gap ups +8%, +7% and +10% in 5 trading days is a bullish
> > shock if you are out of the stock activities.
> > > T/A available tools for continuation are very few and not well
> > organised.
> > > Any ideas to improve this sensitive area ?
> > > Dimitris Tsokakis
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