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Anthony:
I had looked at Butterfly and rejected it as
well. I allow 2% slop, although there are advisors that allow up to 5%,
and the current pattern is in the 3-3.4% range. The reason that
Gartley/Butterfly patterns are of interest is that the reversal statistics are
outstanding. But these statistics drop off in an undocumented way as one
leaves the "ideal" setup. For my trading universe, I have learned
that 2% seems to be OK and beyond that I move on, or wait for the pattern to
complete, if there are indications of that happening. That's my take,
others may play it differently.
Bill
<BLOCKQUOTE
>
----- Original Message -----
<DIV
>From:
Anthony Faragasso
To: <A title=amibroker@xxxxxxxxxx
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Sent: Sunday, September 29, 2002 9:58
PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Gartley
Butterfly setup in NDX100 NOW!
Bill,I may have mis-represented the pattern by calling
it a Gartley , Afterdoing a Google search in order to verify my
spreadsheet , This is indeedcalled a " Bullish Butterfly pattern"
.The bullish butterfly is similar to the Gartley. However, although
thesame ratios are used as the Gartley setup -- 61.8, 78.6, 1.27, and
1.618-- they occur at different parts of the pattern. This results ina
pointD that is lower than point X,... But I should note that this is
anideal pattern; not all ratios will match the ideal in the real
world,even though the pattern is a legitimate butterfly.<A
href="">http://www.working-money.com/Documentation/FEEDbk_docs/Archive/042001/Abstracts_new/Teseo/Teseo.htmlAnthonywavemechanic
wrote:> Anthony: The spreadsheet can give you a rough idea, but is
really too> simplistic for practical application. For example, it
only looks at> .618 and .786, which is "ideal." But Fibonacci
pattern types also use> .707 and even .500 and even .887. More
importantly, however, is the> fact that it shows that AB <>
CD. So although nothing pops up in the> spreadsheet and says
no-no, this is a violation of a critical Gartley> boundary
condition. The spreadsheet also fails to clearly tell the> user
that XA is < AD which is also a no-no for a Gartley pattern.> Etc.,
etc. Bill>> ----- Original Message
-----> From: Anthony
Faragasso> To: <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Sunday, September 29, 2002 8:27 PM>
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Gartley Butterfly setup in
NDX100>
NOW!>
Bill,>> Here is the
Spreadsheet.>>
Thanks>
Anthony>> wavemechanic
wrote:>> > Anthony: Pesavento
spells out the requirements in his>
book. Pivots> > per se do not
define a Gartley, so I don't know what
TASC> is
talking> > about. If you want to
send me the spreadsheet I'll take a>
look. The> > more important
requirements are: AB = CD, AD =
(.618-.786> (.5 used
by> > some but is a stretch)
Fibonacci)*XA, and BC = (same>
Fibonacci> > range)*AB. The
Butterfly has somewhat different
Fibonacci> targets
and> > additional constraints.
Attached is a potential Gartley> forSPX.
Bill>
>> >
----- Original Message ----->
> From: Anthony
Faragasso>
> To: <A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Sunday, September 29, 2002 6:16
PM> >
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Gartley Butterfly setup
in>
NDX100>
> NOW!>
>
Bill,>
>> >
How did you come to that conclusion, The pivot
points>
are> >
based on an>
> excel spreadsheet that was supplied by
TASC.>
>> >
Using the Trough and Peak as mentioned, then what
are>
the> >
Pivot points>
> for B,C,D,and Target ( T )
.>
>> >
Thanks>
>
Anthony>
>> >
wavemechanic wrote:>
>> >
>> >
>> >
> ----- Original Message
-----> >
> From: Anthony
Faragasso>
> > To:<A
href="">amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent:
Sunday, September 29, 2002 5:37 PM>
> > Subject:
[amibroker] Gartley Butterfly setup>
in> >
NDX100 NOW!>
> >
Hello,>
> >>
> > It seems
there is a Gartley Setup in the>
NDX100,>
> using
the> >
> low (
trough)>
> > of
8/5/2002 and the High ( Peak) of
8/22/2002> .
The> >
final> >
> leg
or> >
> Targets are: 934.71 and 960.61. Neither
the>
Gartley>
> or>
> >
Butterfly Fibonacci requirements are met
by> the
NDX> >
pivots>
> >
shown. On the other hand, take a look
at> SPX.
Bill> >
Anthony>
> >>
> >
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