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Thanks P
Everyone of your credo's is part of my trading rules :)
I was just trying to work out what curve fitting really is
I think its where you develop a system around every move of a stocks prior
performance .
What im trying to understand is to what level do you have a system that
suits a certain stock or type of stock ?
Here's a simple example XXX stock has backtested to perform well with the
mov 10 , 30 cross but shows poor results over a portfolio test ,
Do I forget it and look for something that suits a wider range of stocks
or keep it just for that stock , if I do is this regarded as curve fitting ?
That was a simple example it would mostlikely be several indicators that
when combined show good results .
I should know the answer having read may times about it but it just wont
sink in :))
Thanks David
----- Original Message -----
From: "server not recognized" <winchp@xxxx>
To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Monday, June 04, 2001 10:25 PM
Subject: Re: [amibroker] Steady Movers
> FWIW.
>
> DO NOT curve fit. It lulls you into a false sense of security.
>
> My creedo#1 is "Hope is the enemy of greed".
>
> Therefore a certain skitishness , like a nervous cat, is necessary to leap
> out the way the MINUTE you think its danger. It doesn't matter that you
do
> ten trades, all wrong, if you only loose 5% per trade. But when you're
in,
> if after all that time for contemplation, you get the direction wrong -
GET
> OUT.
>
> DO NOT constantly seek the 3000% trade. Be happy to take 10%-20% per
trade
> 10 time a year. Creedo #2 "Compounded gains are my best friend".
>
> DO NOT over trade.
>
> DO NOT concern yourself with "who has got the cheapest brokerage". At say
> $30 /trade for up to $10,000 its less than worth worrying about. You'll
> lose more on hanging on an extra day in a losing trade than you'll ever
save
> on commissions. Guaranteed.
>
> DO NOT be afraid to pull the trigger on a winning trade. As the stock
rises
> put stops closer to the price. If you don't have an automatic sell at a
> stop RING YOUR BROKER, or INTERNET SELL. If the price drops back don't
> start hoping that it should go back. Do not break credo #1.
>
> DO NOT LOOK Back. If you sold stock and after it goes back into the sky
> don't bitch. Buy it back if you think it's really going somewhere - else
> STOP BITCHING.
>
> DO NOT trade your account to nothing. If you've made say 50%, take 20%
off
> the table.
>
> Thats the start of my rule set. Just remember some organisations have more
> people with more intense algoritms, faster computers and more man hours
than
> you. Amibroker is auseful tool but the above rules will probably make you
> more money.
>
> DO NOT BE UNHAPPY! Figure out where your sleepness night stress level is
,
> back off a bit, sleep well and keep perspective.
>
> P
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "David Holzgrefe" <dtholz@xxxx>
> To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Monday, June 04, 2001 8:00 AM
> Subject: Re: [amibroker] Steady Movers
>
>
> > Trader10
> >
> > Thanks for the insight into your trading methods I can see the you will
> > appreciate the weekly scans that will be available in ver. 3.7
> >
> > You may find the piece of code bang for bucks that Geoff M used in his
> > searched handy for ranking too .
> >
> > Can I ask do you back test your results ?
> >
> > If so what criteria do you regard as successful result ?
> >
> > % return
> > % win
> > a comparison to buy/hold
> >
> > I must admit I've been using T/A software for over a year now and still
> > haven't come to full understand backtesting. but I can see it as a
> parallel
> > to studies I did on statistical quality control many years ago.
> >
> > I guess the new addition to the family may help me understand it more (M
> > Prings breaking the black box ) .
> >
> > whilst I'm flapping my gums (fingers in this case) another topic that
I'm
> > still trying to understand curve filling , A hot one I know I still have
> the
> > bruises
> > from another forum on that one :))
> >
> > Its regarded as a no no but ? is there value in developing a set of
rules
> > for an individual stock .. ?
> >
> > Ok I have raised a few trader type questions here that I,m interested in
> I'd
> > love to see a 1000 word essay on each of the topics from you all *W*
> >
> >
> > LOL
> >
> > Regards David
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: <traders10@xxxx>
> > To: <amibroker@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Sent: Monday, June 04, 2001 4:40 AM
> > Subject: [amibroker] Steady Movers
> >
> >
> > > My current project is to identify strong, steady trending stocks.
> > > Over the last couple years I found that while I was busy chasing the
> > > latest momentum stock du jour I was missing some of the longer term
> > > really nice trending stocks.
> > >
> > > I picked 100 or so issues that have had strong runs lasting several
> > > months or more. These stocks may have strong enough ROC to bubble to
> > > to the top of a momentum scan, but typically they do not sort to the
> > > top 10-20 positions on a ROC type scan. Yet there are periods in the
> > > last few years that I would have really liked to be in them.
> > >
> > > The runs last long enough that picking them up after a month or two
> > > is acceptable.
> > >
> > > My initial work has been to find indicators or patterns that do catch
> > > the trending period on those 100 stocks.
> > >
> > > Once a scan can catch the runs then I check to see if
> > > that "indicator" will have so many false entries as to drive me
> > > crazy with excessive trading, commissions and tied up capital.
> > >
> > > If the trading idea still holds up, I then check it against the
> > > universe of stocks that I normally follow. That is ~2500 stocks
> > > prescreened in TC2000 or QP2 for price > $4, avg vol > 300k or so.
> > >
> > > AmiBroker is very handy for this use of backtesting as a screening
> > > process for trading ideas. I can whip up a few lines of code in AFL
> > > and quickly backtest against the 100 stock portfolio to see if it has
> > > any merit for this type of trade.
> > >
> > > I can tell you that in many cases doing this on a weekly basis is
> > > superior to trying to make it work on a daily basis. Fortunately
> > > there is no great hurry to enter the trade. Once this type of scan
> > > has identified the initial conditions the candidates can be put into
> > > a watch list and further evaluation can be done on the concentrated
> > > list.
> > >
> > > Things that need to be examined at that point are possible prior
> > > basing, current earnings situation, smoothness of trend and applying
> > > the oscillator or pattern of choice to enter the trade.
> > >
> > > Is it working yet...no, always looking for ideas.... I have
> > > evaluated a lot of ideas so far and naturally no single indicator or
> > > pattern does the job...what else is new :-)
> > >
> > > Preliminary evidence points to a voting scheme with 3-5 inputs for
> > > entries and maybe 1 of 3 or 2 of 3 conditions for exits.
> > >
> > > Looking for some code for indicator divergence as one of those exits.
> > >
> > > Well, enough for now. This gives some idea of my current project.
> > > Trader
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
> > > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
> http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to
http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
> >
> >
>
>
>
>
> Your use of Yahoo! Groups is subject to http://docs.yahoo.com/info/terms/
>
>
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